Market review last week:
Last week (2022.01.10-2022.01.14), the food and beverage sector (Shenwan) fell 4.40%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.35%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.98%. The food and beverage sector lost 2.78 percentage points to the Shanghai composite index last week, ranking 27th among the weekly increases and decreases of Shenwan’s 31 primary sub industries. Most of the sub sectors fell, and the Baijiu sector fell 4.71%. Core view: market disturbance factors increase, Baijiu structural market dependence
Baijiu sector: the market disturbance factor increased, causing Baijiu sector callback. By the end of 2021, the Baijiu sector has continued to callback. The reason is that the market is full of disturbing factors. 1) with the increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and other high-end and high-end liquor companies, investors always worry about Baijiu consumption tax. 2) in the context of the high expectations of Baijiu sales in 2022, the epidemic situation is repeatedly overlaid, and the terminal market is deserted. Baijiu sector is expected to be callback.
Baijiu long-term demand is stable, structural market still exists. Baijiu has a high consumption stickiness in consumer goods. Without the influence of external policies, Baijiu demand is still stable in the long run. At present, the overall Baijiu is in the stage of decreasing volume and increasing price, and the sector differentiation is obvious. The trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ‘s high-end Baijiu will not change. The high-end Baijiu will drive the growth of the price with the increase of price. The Baijiu Baijiu, such as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , can enjoy the growth of volume and price in the blank price belt after the price rise of high-end liquor. According to the recent performance forecast, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) expects revenue in 2021 to grow 23% – 27% compared with the same period. The Jinsha Baijiu company said at the national distributor conference that its revenue in 2021 increased by about 122% compared to the previous year, and the revenue of the second high-end liquor enterprises was steady growth. In 2021, the Baijiu price rise and the current low inventory of the dual factors, it is recommended that Baijiu spring sales. Quick frozen products: the market scale of prefabricated vegetables industry is expected to exceed trillion. In 2021, the negative impact of the epidemic is gradually dissipated, and the catering revenue is expected to return to the long-term growth trend. In addition, China’s group meal market is large, but there are some problems, such as time-consuming, less taste diversity, health hazards and so on. Prefabricated dishes are convenient, diverse and healthy, which can solve the pain points of group meals. According to AI media consulting, the scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetable market is expected to be 345.9 billion yuan in 2021. If the growth rate of China’s Prefabricated vegetable market remains stable at 20% in the future, the scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetable market will exceed trillion yuan in 2027.
The growth drivers of the prefabricated vegetable industry are clear. From the supply side, with the breakthrough of cold chain logistics technology and the improvement of infrastructure, the catering supply chain market will develop at a high speed, and the supply of prefabricated vegetables is expected to increase; From the demand side, 1) the safety and health characteristics of prefabricated vegetables are in line with the consumption upgrading trend; 2) With the trend of single population structure and the emergence of social phenomena such as housing economy, consumers tend to choose prefabricated dishes that save cooking time; 3) The prefabricated dishes are easy to be unified and standardized, which can save the back kitchen manpower and rent cost of b-end catering enterprises. On the whole, both the supply side and the demand side of prefabricated dishes are expected to develop rapidly for a long time. It is expected that both ends of prefabricated dishes B and C will go hand in hand in the future.
Investment advice
Plate allocation: Baijiu > beer > dairy products > snack food > condiment;
Baijiu: we should pay attention to the high potential Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) of high-end liquor enterprises Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and sub high end wine enterprises.
Beer: it is recommended to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) with high growth expectation in future performance;
Dairy products: it is suggested to focus on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) in the three aspects of production capacity, channel and product.
Risk tips:
Baijiu price rise less than expected, terminal demand fell, food safety issues, etc.
