Last week’s market: the overall correction of light industry manufacturing sector. From January 10, 2022 to January 14, 2022, the Shanghai composite index decreased by 1.63%, the Shenzhen component index decreased by 1.35%, and the light industry manufacturing index decreased by 2.21%, ranking 18th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are: packaging and printing (+ 0.89%), papermaking (- 2.34%) and household light industry (- 3.63%).
Furniture: continue to be optimistic about the margin of real estate policy and relax the valuation and repair of Panasonic household sector. 1) Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) the performance forecast meets our expectations: the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.65-1.73 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 95% – 105%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.42-15 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 140% – 154%. 2) Continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair of the furniture sector: in terms of real estate, since December 2021, the lending cycle of second-hand housing has gradually shortened and returned to normal, and banks in some regions such as Guangzhou, Nanjing and Yangzhou have begun to reduce mortgage interest rates. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2021, the decline in the price of new houses in the first and second tier cities narrowed, the price of second-hand houses in the first tier cities changed from negative to positive, and the price of new houses in 15 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities increased month on month (6 in November). On January 12, 2022, the people’s Bank of China issued the statistical data report on the stock of social financing scale in 2021. The report showed that the stock of social financing scale at the end of 2021 was 314.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; In 2021, RMB loans increased by 19.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 315 billion yuan year-on-year. In December 2021, social finance increased by 2.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 720.6 billion yuan over the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 123.4 billion yuan. We continue to be optimistic about the marginal easing of real estate policy and the valuation repair of the home furnishing sector. In terms of customization sector, the correction last week (2022 / 1 / 10 to 2022 / 1 / 14) was mainly affected by the slightly weaker social finance data than the market expectation, but we believe that the marginal rationalization trend of real estate credit remains unchanged, and the orders of 2021q4 household enterprises exceed the previous market expectation. In combination with the proportion of bulk business income, accounts receivable risk and valuation level, it is recommended to recommend [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] and [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of software, it is the first to accelerate the promotion of independent brands and sink the leading [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] in channel construction; Meanwhile, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] are recommended.
E-cigarette: interpret the report on tobacco epidemic trend and be optimistic about the transformation effect of new tobacco. 1) On January 8, 2022, who conducted a survey on smoking in 165 countries and issued the fourth edition of tobacco epidemic trend report 2000-2025. The global tobacco control effect was remarkable and the number of cigarette users decreased significantly. We believe that new tobacco plays an indispensable role in the process of changing traditional smokers. 2) On January 11, 2022, Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) increased the capital of Jiaju electronics through the wholly-owned subsidiary Jinjia Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) technology, and the card position HNB herbal business. 3) On January 14, 2022, atomtech learned that the new generation of ceramic technology of smalls will usher in new progress, and the feelm new technology conference has been officially scheduled and will be held in London, UK on January 18. Technology oriented, leading the development of atomization technology, and continuing to recommend the global core provider of atomization technology solutions [smore international]; It is suggested that we should pay close attention to [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ], which is closely related to China tobacco, and has the flavor and flavor of HNB. Enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Papermaking: in terms of price, as of January 14, 2022, the price of box board paper was 4904 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of corrugated paper was 3900 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 16 yuan / ton; The price of white cardboard was 5871 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of whiteboard was 4905 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The price of double copper paper was 5380 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of double offset paper was 5600 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 13 yuan / ton. The price of wood pulp was 6264.3 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 120 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, as of last Thursday (January 13, 2022), the inventory of cultural paper and carton board enterprises had increased slightly on a weekly basis. The industry operated stably and waited for the improvement of demand.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade friction, weak downstream demand, etc. Note: except for special notes, all currencies in the full text are RMB.
