The lack of core has been significantly improved, and the production rhythm and scale have recovered rapidly. In December, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.907 million and 2.786 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 10.5%, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the output growth rate changed from negative to positive, and the decline in sales narrowed by 7.5pct. For the whole year of 2021, Q1 has a large year-on-year growth rate due to its low base. The growth rate of Q2 began to decline, Q3 began to be most affected by the lack of core, declined significantly, and Q4 began to recover gradually. In 2021, the cumulative sales volume of vehicles was 26.275 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%.
It is expected that the industry will continue to pick up in 2022, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to reach 5.4%. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the total automobile sales volume is expected to reach 27.5 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Under the joint action of gradual recovery of chip supply and replenishment of inventory through channels, the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to be 23 million, with a year-on-year increase of 8%; In terms of new energy vehicles, CAAC expects that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 5 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 42.0%. The prediction of the passenger Federation is more optimistic. It is expected to exceed 6 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 70.4%.
Investment suggestion: focus on strong cycle vehicle enterprises and fast-growing auto electronic parts enterprises. Vehicle enterprises focus on Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (the strong product cycle has come, and the mitigation of chip supply promotes the rapid release of performance), and parts enterprises focus on Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) (the underestimated value constructs the safety margin, and the continuous large-scale production of Volkswagen Id family + red flag products drives the performance growth of core suppliers.)
