\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659)
The performance is in line with expectations, and the strength of lithium technology comprehensive platform is gradually highlighted
The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 to be RMB 1.7-1.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 154.63% - 169.61%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 is RMB 468-569 million, which is in line with the expectation. In terms of the composition of the spin off business, we judge that the negative business constitutes the basic sector for the sustainable growth of the company, and the coating and other businesses are the engine for improving the performance growth of the company. And Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) this development pattern will be more clear in 2022 and beyond. We continue to be optimistic that the company, as a comprehensive lithium battery technology platform company, ranks among the first echelons in multiple tracks and benefits deeply from the wave of rapid development of new energy. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 1.748/25.22/3.551 billion yuan, EPS is 2.52/3.63/5.11 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 59.5/41.2/29.3 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The negative electrode business is steady, and other businesses such as coating are developing rapidly
Negative pole business: it is estimated that the company's shipment in 2021 will be about 100000 tons, an increase of 58.73% over 2020 (about 63000 tons). In contrast, the cumulative output of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in 2021 will be 219.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of 163.4%. The industry growth rate is higher than the company's shipment growth rate, mainly due to the company's insufficient capacity. In terms of net profit per ton, based on the strong demand in 2021, we expect the net profit per ton of negative electrode products to be about 11000-12000 yuan / ton (including graphitization), an increase of about 22-30% compared with 9000 yuan / ton in 2020. The overall net profit of negative electrode business is expected to be about 1.1-1.2 billion yuan.
Coating and other businesses: the company's shipment volume is expected to be about 2 billion Ping in 2021, an increase of 186% over 2020 (about 700 million Ping). In terms of net profit per square meter, it will be about 0.15 yuan per square meter in 2020. We expect that the net profit per square meter will be increased to 0.2 yuan per square meter in 2021. It is estimated that the overall net profit of the coating business is about 400 million yuan. Lithium battery equipment and other businesses: the overall net profit is expected to be about 200 million yuan in 2021.
The expansion of production was gradually implemented, the superimposed demand continued to be strong, and the performance growth outperformed the overall growth rate of the industry
Rapid production expansion of various businesses: by the end of 2021, the 60000 ton negative pole project in Jiangxi was gradually put into operation, and the company's production capacity reached 150000 tons. In 2022, 100000 tons of Sichuan base was put into operation first, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 250000 tons. The graphitization capacity will be constructed simultaneously. After the completion of 50000 tons of Xingfeng phase II in Inner Mongolia, the graphitization capacity will be about 120000 tons. After the integration of Sichuan project is completed, the graphitization capacity is expected to exceed 200000 tons. Membrane coating capacity is expected to exceed 4 billion square meters in 2022. Performance growth outperforms the industry: on the premise of relatively sufficient production capacity, the company's performance is expected to outperform the industry growth.
Risk tip: the progress of production expansion is less than expected and the demand drops
