\u3000\u3000 Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) (601001)
Q4 performance greatly exceeded expectations and is expected to benefit from the price increase and asset injection of the long-term association
The company released the annual performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 4.868 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 3.992 billion yuan, an increase of 455.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 4.676 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 3.802 billion, an increase of 434.83%. According to this calculation, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 2.272 billion yuan, an increase of 84.1% month on month. The Q4 performance increased greatly, driving the annual performance much higher than expected, mainly benefiting from the simultaneous rise of coal volume and price and excellent cost control of the company. As the leader of Shanxi power coal, the company benefits from the improvement of the fundamentals of the coal industry, and its performance stands on a new platform. In the future, with the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association, its performance is expected to be released steadily; At the same time, relying on Shanxi “energy aircraft carrier” Jinneng holding group, there is a large injection space for high-quality coal assets, and it is optimistic about the exogenous growth potential in the future. Considering that the annual performance exceeded the expectation, we raised the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 will be RMB 4.87/64.9/67.4 (the previous value was 3.70 / 39.2 / 4.15) billion, a year-on-year increase of 455.8% / 33.3% / 3.9%; EPS is 2.91/3.88/4.03 (former value 2.21 / 2.34 / 2.48) yuan; Corresponding to the latest share price, PE is 3.3 / 2.5 / 2.4 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
In 2021q4, the coal volume and price rise together, and Tongxin mine contributes to the investment income
In terms of price, although the high price of thermal coal has dropped due to the price limit in the price law of the national development and Reform Commission since October 2021, the average price of Q4 single quarter has still increased significantly month on month: the spot price of Q4 QinGang thermal coal is 1355 yuan / ton, up 18.9% month on month; The average price of vehicle board in Datong, Shanxi was 937 yuan / ton, up 29.3% month on month. Meanwhile, the average price of the long-term association in Q4 was 744 yuan / ton, up 12.3% month on month. Therefore, the company’s long association and pithead coal have fully benefited from the rise in coal prices. In terms of production and marketing, Q4 supply guarantee has been strengthened, and the capacity utilization of Tashan mine and selian mine, the company’s main mines, has been improved, continuing the growth trend of production and sales in the first three quarters. In terms of cost, the company comprehensively implemented fine management, promoted small pillar mining through the construction of intelligent mines, and strengthened cost reduction and efficiency increase. Under the background of the general increase of coal enterprise costs in 2021, the company’s costs were reasonably controlled. In addition, Tongxin mine, as a mine with equity participation in 2020 (32%) has good benefits and may contribute significantly to the growth of the company’s investment income.
It is expected to benefit from the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association, and the asset injection of the group is worthy of attention
In December 2021, the national development and Reform Commission raised the annual benchmark price of the long-term association to 700 yuan, an increase of 31% over the long-term benchmark of 535 yuan. The company will take the lead in benefiting from the high proportion of the long-term association sales model. According to cctd, the annual long-term agreement price in January 2022 remained at a relatively high level of RMB 725, which continued to benefit the release of the company’s performance. The reform and development goal of Shanxi provincial enterprises in the “14th five year plan” requires that the asset securitization rate of provincial enterprises reach more than 80%. Jinneng holding group brings together the high-quality coal resources of the original three coal enterprises in Shanxi with strong strength. As its only coal listing platform, the company has a clear positioning for the integration of coal resources. At present, the capacity securitization rate of Jinkong group is only 11%. In 2022, the asset injection process may be accelerated, and the company has large exogenous growth space.
Risk tip: economic growth is lower than expected; Risk of falling coal prices; The progress of asset securitization is less than expected
