\u3000\u3000 Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) (300496)
Event: Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) released the performance forecast for 2021 on January 13. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021 will exceed 4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 640-680 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.32% – 53.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 571 million to RMB 611 million, with a year-on-year increase of 56.04% – 66.97%.
The industry still has a high outlook, and the actual profit growth rate is higher than expected: on the revenue side, the company’s operating revenue exceeded 4 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. We believe that the smart car and smart Internet of things track where the company is located still has a high prosperity. Superimposed on the company’s continuous iteration in business model, the company’s performance maintains a high-speed growth profit side. The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 640-680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.32% – 53.34%; Considering the additional equity incentive fee of RMB 32 million in 2021 and the amortization expense of intangible assets evaluation and appreciation caused by M & A of RMB 54 million, after excluding the above effects, we calculate that the actual profit growth of the company in 2021 should be higher than 70% to achieve more than expected growth.
Q4 single quarter performance growth returned to a high level, and profitability steadily improved: in addition to the outstanding performance, we also pay attention to two changes: 1) Q4 single quarter performance growth returned to a high level, and the company’s 21q3 single quarter revenue growth declined due to holidays and contract revenue recognition time, but 21q4 performance growth returned to a high level, and it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of more than 1.3 billion yuan, It increased by more than 60% over the same period of last year and more than 35% quarter on quarter, showing the company’s growth under the high climate of the industry. 2) Profitability increased steadily: according to the performance forecast, the company’s net interest rate in 2021 remained at 16% – 17%, which was basically the same as last year. However, we observed that the R & D expense rate and management expense rate of the company increased to a certain extent in the first three quarters of 21 years, from 9.87% and 19.82% to 12.85% and 23.22% respectively, Therefore, we expect that the gross profit margin of the company has increased significantly in 2021. Possible reasons include: 1) the complexity of mobile phone and automobile business has increased and the bargaining power of the company has increased; 2) The increase of IP deposited by the company in the field of intelligent vehicles has led to the increase of the proportion of technology licensing charging mode.
The two high view racetracks highlight the company’s growth under the wave of intelligence: looking forward to 2022, we are still optimistic about the company’s growth under the two high view racetracks of smart car and intelligent Internet of things. In terms of intelligent vehicles, during the recent ces2022 exhibition, the company released a new intelligent cockpit solution based on Qualcomm sa8295 hardware platform and kanzione, which supports the human-computer interaction design of a new generation of intelligent cockpit, further consolidating the advantages of intelligent cockpit. In addition, with the acceleration of Qualcomm’s progress in the field of automatic driving, such as the acquisition of veoneer, the integration of the arriver platform, and the cooperation with BMW, GM and great wall, it is expected that the company, as an in-depth partner of Qualcomm, is expected to take the lead in benefiting from it, and is optimistic about intelligent driving taking over the intelligent cabin, becoming the driving force for a new round of growth of the company’s automotive business. In terms of intelligent Internet of things, the company has many business categories and shipment has certain flexibility. In the future, it is expected to increase in large quantities with the gradual promotion of customers’ new products, and the subsequent growth momentum is abundant.
Investment suggestion: the company fully benefits from the wave of intelligence, takes the operating system as the core, continuously expands the product line for smart car / mobile phone / Internet of things, and the follow-up Growth Logic of the three businesses is clear. We expect that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.03/58.0/7.95 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 6.5/9.3/1.23 billion respectively, maintaining the Buy-A investment rating. As the company is still in the growth period, we give PE 70 times the net profit in 2023, corresponding to the six-month target price of 202.54 yuan / share.
Risk tips: 1) R & D investment is less than expected; 2) The demand for AR, VR and other equipment is lower than expected; 3) The penetration rate of intelligent networked vehicles is lower than expected; 4) The impact of exchange rate fluctuations.
