\u3000\u3000 China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036)
Data overview
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 23.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 1.0pc month on month; Revenue increased by 14.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5pc month on month. Roe 16.9%, yoy + 1.2pc; The defective rate was 0.91%, with a chain ratio of -2bp; The provision coverage rate was 441%, with a month on month ratio of -2pc.
Positive profit momentum
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) 2021a net profit growth increased by 1.0pc to 23.2% month on month, and revenue growth increased by 0.5pc to 14.0% month on month. The main driving factors are as follows: ① with the recovery of interest margin and the acceleration of scale expansion, the growth rate of net interest income increased; ② It is speculated that the contribution brought by the improvement of impairment loss is increased. Looking forward to the future, with the solid asset quality and the strength of wealth strategy, the profit is expected to remain excellent.
The interest rate spread picked up month on month
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in 2021q4, the estimated net interest margin (net interest income in a single quarter / average total assets) rebounded 3bp to 2.34% month on month, mainly due to the improvement of debt structure. 2021q4 China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) deposits increased by 5.6% month on month, 2.1pc faster than total liabilities. The proportion of deposits increased, supporting the interest margin.
Better out of the bad
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in 2021q4, the NPL rate decreased by - 2bp month on month, and the NPL balance decreased by about 1.2% month on month, continuing the Q3 trend. The market's concern about the asset quality of China Merchants Bank is expected to ease. In terms of risk offsetting capacity, the provision coverage decreased 2pc to 441% month on month, and the provision remained at a high level.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) from 2022 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 15.39% / 15.20% year-on-year, corresponding to bps32 92 / 37.33 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 1.46/1.29 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of 62.50 yuan, corresponding to 1.90x Pb in 2022, and the current price corresponds to 1.46x Pb in 2022, with a current price space of 30%.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall, substantial exposure of adverse
