\u3000\u3000 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888)
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) disclose the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. The expected net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is about 9.4-10.1 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3-4 billion yuan compared with 6.1 billion yuan in the same period of last year (before retroactive adjustment), a year-on-year increase of about 54% – 66%; Compared with 6.1 billion yuan in the same period of last year (after retroactive adjustment), it increased by 3.3-4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 54% – 66%.
In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit of about 9.3-10 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3-4 billion yuan compared with 6 billion yuan in the same period of last year (before retroactive adjustment), a year-on-year increase of about 55% – 67%; Compared with RMB 6 billion in the same period of last year (after retroactive adjustment), it increased by about RMB 3.3-4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55% – 67%.
In the split single quarter, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 900-1.6 billion in Q4 of 2021, a decrease of 46% – 69% compared with RMB 2.976 billion in the same period of last year; Q4 is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 0.9-1.6 billion after deduction from non parent company, a decrease of 46% – 69% compared with RMB 2.975 billion in the same period of last year. Performance may be affected by relevant expenses.
There may be multiple expense amortization in the fourth quarter of 2021, which will have a certain impact on the net profit of a single quarter. According to the company’s previous annual reports, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) will carry out accounting treatment on inventory falling price reserves, bonus incentive expenses and user deferred points in the fourth quarter. Therefore, we believe that the company’s single quarter profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 may be affected by the above expenses. Because the company’s inventory involves customs inspection and epidemic prevention before warehousing, we believe that the statistical process of the company’s inventory falling price reserves will be relatively long, so the current specific inventory impairment level cannot be accurately confirmed.
The tax-free market in Hainan developed steadily in the fourth quarter, and the revenue volume of China tax exemption in the fourth quarter met expectations. According to the data of Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, the total sales of 10 duty-free shops on outlying islands in Hainan in 2021 were 60.173 billion yuan, an increase of 84% at the same time. Among them, the tax-free sales volume was 50.49 billion yuan, an increase of 83% at the same time; The number of duty-free shoppers was 9.6766 million, an increase of 73% at the same time; The number of duty-free purchases was 53.4925 million, an increase of 71% at the same time. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) as the main force of tax-free sales in Hainan outlying islands, we believe that under the background of the continuous increase of the total tax-free consumption in the outlying islands in the fourth quarter, the sales of China tax free in the fourth quarter is in line with expectations. We predict that the overall revenue of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) in the fourth quarter is about 18.5-19 billion yuan, of which the omni-channel operating revenue in Hainan is about 14-14.5 billion yuan.
The “14th five year plan” for China’s trade development was officially issued, and the tax-free industry welcomed the good again. On December 31, 2021, the “14th five year plan for China’s trade development” formulated by 22 departments including the Ministry of Commerce was officially issued. The “plan” pointed out that governments at all levels and competent units should actively cultivate new consumption and encourage the development of consumption such as customization, experience, intelligence and fashion. We will improve the policy of duty-free shops in the city and plan to build a number of duty-free shops with Chinese characteristics. The tax-free industry welcomes the good again, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) as the leading tax-free industry, is expected to accelerate its development under the guidance of the “plan”.
Investment suggestion: at present China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , the competition pattern, supply chain advantage and business model have not changed, and the competition pattern of the track has not been destroyed. The epidemic has not had a great impact on the profit logic, and the recovery of passenger flow will effectively promote the company’s performance. The peak season of the first quarter of 2022 is approaching, and the medium free long-term value will not decrease. Considering the company’s latest performance pre increase announcement, we adjusted the company’s performance forecast. We expect the net profit from 2021 to 2023 to be 9.8 billion, 13.2 billion and 16.4 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 60.36%, 34.37% and 23.77% respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects offline passenger flow
