\u3000\u3000 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481)
Event overview
The company announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 285 million to RMB 325 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 107.40% to 136.50%. The net profit deducted from non parent company was 210 million yuan to 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.78% to 147.36%. The high performance increase is mainly due to the strong demand for the company's main products in 2021, the government subsidy obtained by the wholly-owned subsidiary Shuangliang silicon material (the estimated impact on the net profit is 75-85 million yuan) and the small base in 2020.
Analysis and judgment:
Energy saving, water saving and new energy equipment business orders blowout, driving the high growth of the company's performance
1) energy saving and water saving business: benefiting from the industrial development opportunities brought by the "double carbon" policy, the company's traditional advantageous products such as bromine chillers, air coolers and heat exchangers continue to make efforts. In 2021, the signed and ongoing announcement orders for water saving and energy saving reached 3.209 billion yuan.
2) new energy equipment business: benefiting from the capacity expansion of downstream photovoltaic silicon materials, the company's polysilicon reduction furnace, its skid, heat exchanger and a series of new energy equipment orders have increased significantly. In 2021, the signed and ongoing announced equipment orders of polysilicon materials industry reached RMB 1.857 billion. In 2021, the total amount of the above orders reached 5.067 billion yuan, which is conducive to supporting the company's performance.
The sales of large-size silicon wafers are long and full, and the silicon material supply is locked in advance to ensure the mass production of silicon wafers
1) at present, the trend of large-scale silicon wafer is becoming more and more obvious. According to the prediction of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the market share of 182mm + 210mm large-scale photovoltaic silicon wafer will increase from less than 5% in 2020 to nearly 50% in 2021. 210 size silicon wafer cannot be produced by transforming the existing silicon wafer production line below 166 size. The 1600 furnace single crystal furnace purchased by Baotou subsidiary of the company can directly produce 210 silicon wafers, and give consideration to the production of 182 / 166 silicon wafers, meeting the needs of downstream enterprises for large-scale replacement of silicon wafers.
2) since October 2021, the company has successively signed long sales orders with Jiangsu Runyang Yueda, Shanghai aixu, Jiangsu Longheng, Funing atlas, Jiangsu Xinchao and Changzhou Shunfeng (the specific sales price is in the form of monthly negotiation), and has locked in 4.65 billion large-size silicon wafers and 32500 tons of large-size single crystal ingots from 2022 to 2024. The implementation of the sales contract shows that the quality of the company's silicon wafer is gradually recognized by customers, which is expected to bring great performance flexibility to the company.
3) on September 22, the company signed a 5-year polysilicon material procurement contract with Xinjiang Xinte and Jiangsu Zhongneng (from 2022 to 2026, the actual procurement price adopts monthly negotiation), with a total procurement volume of about 1349500 tons. Relying on the reduction furnace business, the company maintains a good cooperative relationship with the silicon material plant to ensure the stable supply of silicon material.
The application for non-public offering of shares was approved, and the certainty of silicon wafer capacity release was further enhanced
In January 2022, the company's application for non-public offering of shares was approved, and the total amount of funds to be raised is expected to be no more than 3.488 billion yuan (including) for 40gw monocrystalline silicon phase I Project (20GW) and supplementary working capital project. We believe that the adoption of the company's application for non-public offering of shares will further ensure the smooth progress of the silicon wafer project.
Investment suggestion: considering that the company's energy-saving, water-saving and new energy equipment business orders are full and the silicon wafer business continues to develop well, we raised the company's revenue from 3.027/59.95/88.70 to 30.63/71.36/10.917 billion yuan in 21-23 years; Raise the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 283 / 570 / 843 million from 21 to 23 to RMB 311 / 614 / 947 million; The forecast of EPS of 0.17/0.35/0.52 yuan in 21-23 years was raised to 0.19/0.38/0.58 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 9.70 yuan / share on January 14, 2022, and the PE of 21-23 years was 51 / 26 / 17 times respectively. We maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of photovoltaic industry is less than expected, the progress of silicon wafer project is less than expected, and the order growth of energy-saving and water-saving business is less than expected.
