\u3000\u3000 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (002371)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021 will be 8.478 billion yuan - 10.901 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40% - 80%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 940 million yuan - 1.208 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75% - 125%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit was 690-887 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 250% - 350%. From the Q4 single quarter, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 2.305 billion yuan to 4.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.79% to 112.91%, and a month-on-month increase of - 10.15% to 84.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 282 million to RMB 550 million, with a year-on-year increase of 33.92% to 161.33% and a month on month increase of - 19.04% to 57.98%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 165 million to RMB 362 million, with a year-on-year increase of 632.53% to 1508.55% and a month-on-month increase of - 45.15% to 20.46%.
Q4's revenue is expected to increase significantly month on month, and its profitability is expected to continue to improve: the company expects that the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company will grow significantly year-on-year in 2021, mainly benefiting from the high prosperity of the semiconductor equipment market and the demand for domestic substitutes. From the Q4 single quarter, the median revenue guidance of the performance forecast was 3.516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.35% and a month-on-month increase of 37.08%; The median net profit attributable to the parent company is 416 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 97.63% and a month on month increase of 19.47%. Q4 performance is expected to continue the high growth trend and improve greatly year on year and month on month. In 2021, the company generated a large amount of equity incentive expenses. According to the equity incentive announcement issued in February 2020, the company's equity incentive expenses are expected to reach a high point of about 350 million yuan in 2021, and show a continuous downward trend in the following years. In addition, considering the improvement of the company's scale effect in the future, the company's profitability is expected to continue to improve in the future.
TSMC guidelines high growth in capital expenditure, and upstream equipment is expected to fully benefit: TSMC said at the latest performance briefing that it expects the semiconductor market (excluding memory) to grow by 9% and the chip foundry industry to grow by 20% in 2022. It is expected that the production capacity will remain tight throughout 2022, and the capital expenditure this year is expected to be between us $40 billion and US $44 billion, Year on year growth of 33% to 47%. Compared with the capital expenditure of US $30 billion in 2021 and US $14.9 billion in 2019, TSMC's capital expenditure has increased rapidly for many years, which is expected to drive the growth of upstream equipment demand. From the Chinese mainland Chinese market, with the continuous transfer of global wafer production capacity to mainland China, according to IC Insights data, the Chinese mainland's wafer production capacity is expected to increase from 15.3% in 2020 to 18% in 2025. At present, the localization rate of upstream equipment is at a low level. As the leader of semiconductor equipment in China, the company has a comprehensive product layout and is expected to continue to benefit from the high prosperity of the industry and the trend of domestic substitution.
The fixed increase was successfully completed and the expansion of production was accelerated: the company completed a non-public offering on November 2, 2021, with an issue price of 304.00 yuan / share, raising a total of 8.5 billion yuan, of which the second phase of the national integrated circuit industry investment fund subscribed 1.5 billion yuan. The fixed increase fund-raising will be invested in the expansion of production and R & D projects. After the project is completed, the production capacity of 500 integrated circuit equipment, 500 emerging semiconductor equipment, 300 LED equipment and 700 photovoltaic equipment will be formed, and the production capacity of 220000 high-precision quartz crystal oscillators and 20 million special resistors will be formed. After the project is completed, the annual average output value is expected to be 7.9 billion yuan. With the continuous promotion of domestic substitution and the release of new production capacity, the company's share in the semiconductor equipment market is expected to continue to increase.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 9.236 billion yuan, 13.465 billion yuan and 17.842 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.027 billion yuan, 1.474 billion yuan and 1.863 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is lower than expected; The expansion project is not as expected; Market development was less than expected.
