\u3000\u3000 Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) (600380)
Events. The company issued the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.255-1.367 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 12% - 22%; It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 1.141-1.237 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18% - 28%.
According to the performance forecast, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 246-358 million in Q4 of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 27% - 85%; Q4 is expected to realize a net profit deduction of RMB 221-317 million in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 36% - 94%.
Viewpoint: the annual performance is in line with expectations, and the respiratory department has entered the cashing period.
\u3000\u30001. The annual performance is in line with expectations, and Q4 is expected to achieve rapid growth. According to the median forecast, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.311 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 17%; It is expected to realize the deduction of non net profit of RMB 1.189 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 302 million yuan in Q4 of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 56%; Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 269 million in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 65%. The company's annual performance is generally in line with expectations, and Q4 is expected to achieve rapid growth. We believe that the company's respiratory products have entered the cashing period, and the sales in key advantageous fields such as digestive tract, sex promoting hormone and spirit have achieved sustained and rapid growth year-on-year, driving the growth of sales in the chemical sector; At the same time, the revenue structure of the API sector was optimized to promote the steady growth of the company's performance.
\u3000\u30002. The field of respiratory department is the R & D field of Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) key layout. The pipeline is continuously promoted, and there are many follow-up points. The fifth batch of centralized procurement won the bid for three inhalation preparations (large specification of budesonide suspension for inhalation (2ml: 1mg), compound ipratropium bromide solution for inhalation (Sultane) and ipratropium bromide solution for inhalation (liwu'an)), ensuring the sales of inhalation preparations in the next three years. Terbutaline sulfate aerosol inhalation solution has been declared for production; Tobramycin inhalation solution (class 2.4) is undergoing phase III clinical trial; Formoterol fumarate inhalation solution (Category 3, imitation varieties encouraged by the state) has completed the interim analysis of phase III clinical trial. The independent data monitoring committee determines that the interim analysis results of its main research endpoint meet the pre-set excellence standard; Formoterol fumarate inhaled aerosol (class 2.3), mometasone formoterol inhaled aerosol (Class 3) and adinium bromide inhaled powder aerosol (class 2.2) obtained the notice of approval for clinical trial.
\u3000\u30003. With the layout of cutting-edge technologies, the Institute has established six R & D platforms. Henan Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) biomedical research institute has established six R & D platforms, including industrial strain breeding, synthetic biology, biocatalysis, fermentation amplification, product extraction and biochemical API, with a team of more than 60 people. The Institute has signed strategic cooperation agreements and technical confidentiality agreements with Tencent quantum laboratory and Shenzhen Institute of advanced technology. Recently, the Institute is making every effort to transform and upgrade the production strains of cephalosporin C and phenylalanine; And actively cooperate with Tencent quantum laboratory to carry out research on genome gene cluster and functional element sequence prediction and metabolic pathway optimization in combination with AI technology.
Profit forecast and conclusion. We believe that Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) will continue to contribute to stable performance, the R & D layout of lizumab will continue to advance, new products of respiratory department will contribute to incremental performance, and the R & D pipeline of respiratory department will continue to advance. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.320 billion yuan, 1.565 billion yuan and 1.824 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 17.8%, 18.6% and 16.6% respectively. EPS is 0.67 yuan, 0.80 yuan and 0.93 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 19x, 16x and 14x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: drug sales are less than expected risk; Risk of failure in new drug research and development; API price fluctuation risk.
