\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) (002839)
Event: on January 14, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue was 4.646 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%.
Comments:
The revenue grew steadily and the profit maintained high growth. The year-on-year growth rates of Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 were 10.8% and 29.8% respectively, which increased by 0.09pct and 2.80pct respectively compared with the first three quarters of 2021. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent company in 21q4 were 11.1% and 39.2% respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.43pct and 34.11pct respectively.
The rate of expansion slowed down and the interest rate spread remained relatively resilient. In 2021, the company's net interest income grew by 2.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.40pct compared with the first three quarters of 2021. The slowdown is mainly due to the weakening of table expansion, and the interest margin is expected to remain stable. Among them, the weakening of table expansion is reflected in the company's new assets of RMB 3.134 billion in the single quarter of 21q4 and a decrease of RMB 2.338 billion in quarter on quarter; In terms of interest margin, since the company's performance express did not disclose the interest margin, we approximately simulated the trend of interest margin according to net interest income / average total assets. It is estimated that the simulated interest margins of 1q21, 1h21, 1-3q21 and 2021 are 2.42%, 2.37%, 2.41% and 2.39% respectively, showing a stable operation trend.
The optimization of credit structure helped to improve the interest margin. In 2021, the growth rate of Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) loans was 17.6%, and the growth rate decreased by 1.16pct quarter on quarter. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of personal loans and corporate loans (including discount) were 28.1% and 10.4% respectively, and the growth rate decreased by 2.74pct and 0.40pct quarter on quarter respectively. In terms of structure, the proportion of loans in total assets increased by 0.29pct to 60.7% compared with the end of September 2021, and the proportion of personal loans in total loans increased by 0.58pct to 44.42% compared with the end of September 2021. The pace of the company's scale expansion has slowed down, but at the same time, it actively optimizes the structure, focuses on High-yield retail credit, and effectively hedges the downward pressure on interest margin.
The overall asset quality improved, and the provision coverage increased to 480%. The non-performing loan ratio of the company at the end of 2021 was 0.95%, which increased by about 1bp quarter on quarter, but still decreased by 22bp year-on-year, and has remained below 1% since the second half of 2021. The provision coverage ratio and loan allocation ratio were 479.5% and 4.56% respectively, and the quarter on quarter ratio increased by 27.83 PCT and 0.31 PCT respectively. The company's 21q4 risk offset ability has been further improved, and the safety margin is relatively abundant, which is in the forefront among listed banks.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating. Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) deeply cultivate the local land, and the credit supply is based on "supporting agriculture, supporting small, small and scattered". At this stage, Pratt & Whitney small and micro business is an important starting point for "broadening credit". With the continuous promotion of structural credit, the company's performance is expected to be further released. Meanwhile, since 1h21, the company's non-performing rate has remained below 1%, and the provision has been further thick, which has also created conditions for the release of subsequent performance and the stabilization of nuclear charging rate. Therefore, we raised the EPS forecast for 2021-2023 to 0.72 yuan (up 7.5%) / 0.81 yuan (up 5.2%) / 0.92 yuan (up 4.5%), and the current stock price corresponding to Pb is 1.08/0.98/0.88 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the downward pressure on the macro economy is increasing, and the credit easing is less than expected.
