\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) (300499)
The UHV pure water cooling equipment of the company is recognized by customers outside China: the State Grid expects that the new line length of China's UHV project will be about 63 million km in 2021. According to CCID Consulting, by 2025, the overall investment scale of UHV industry and its driving industries will reach 587 billion yuan. The arrival of the peak period of UHV construction will be accompanied by the increase in the demand for pure water cooling equipment. According to the company's official website, the company provides water cooling equipment supplier for China's first HVDC transmission project, and has established long-term and stable cooperative relations with well-known Chinese customers such as Xi'an XD, CLP Purui, Changzhou Borui, Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) . In the overseas market, in 2012, the company officially became a qualified supplier of Ge. In recent years, the company has successively carried out good cooperation with large international transmission and distribution enterprises such as Siemens and abb.
The company's new energy power generation water-cooled products are suitable for harsh environments, and the business in the energy storage field is expanding continuously: according to the prediction of Polaris Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) network, the market scale of photovoltaic inverter will increase from 45.8 billion yuan in 2020 to 109.6 billion yuan in 2025. According to our prediction, the investment scale of global electrochemical energy storage system is expected to reach 90.1 billion yuan in 2021. Up to now, the company has developed pure water cooling equipment suitable for various 3MW ~ 12MW generator units. The products have been applied to Xinjiang Dabancheng, Beijing Guanting wind farm, Jiangsu Dafeng offshore wind power, Guangdong Zhuhai Guishan offshore wind power and other projects, and have been applied in foreign projects such as Sweden, Thailand, Dubai and the United States. Customers of the company's offshore wind power water cooling products mainly include Jinfeng, Yuanjing, Xiangdian, etc. At present, the layout direction of energy storage products of the company is electrochemical energy storage and water cooling. The company has technical reserves and solutions based on single cabinet energy storage liquid cooling products of lithium battery, liquid cooling system of large energy storage power station, prefabricated cabin energy storage liquid cooling products and so on. The company's products are energy-saving and reliable, and a few prototype contracts have been signed. In May 21, the company won the "best optical storage and charging intelligent equipment supplier award in 2021".
The company's server liquid cooling products are supplied in small quantities: according to our calculation, the market scale of temperature control system in China's data center is expected to reach 19.2 billion yuan / year in 2025. The company has a rich product layout in the field of data center liquid cooling. In 2015, it has successfully developed server sector liquid cooling products for data center cooling. At present, it has integrated server water-cooling radiator, immersion liquid cooling server cabinet, drawer and cabinet series liquid cooling CDU, cooling tower supporting liquid cooling IDC and other products. Gaolan innovation technology, the holding subsidiary of the company, is mainly responsible for the research and development of ICT thermal management technology and products, basically covering the product demand of the whole chain of server liquid cooling. At present, the samples and small batch supply of power battery liquid cooling, heat management unit and server liquid cooling related products have been realized in succession.
Cut into the thermal management business of new energy vehicles and build a new growth curve for the company: in 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 3.521 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. According to our forecast, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 5.21 million in 2022. The rapid growth of sales volume of new energy vehicles drives the increase of the market scale of new energy vehicle thermal management and battery thermal management. According to the data of Hengzhou Bozhi, the global market scale of automotive battery thermal management system reached 4.1 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 19.7 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.2%. In 2019, the company acquired 51% equity of Dongguan Sixiang to enter the thermal management business of new energy vehicles. As one of the first manufacturers to enter the production of heating sheets for new energy vehicles, Dongguan Sixiang's main customers include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , AVIC lithium battery, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , etc. In 2020, Dongguan Sixiang achieved an operating revenue of 337 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%; The net profit was 45 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%. In 2021h1, Dongguan Sixiang achieved an operating revenue of 328 million yuan, close to the annual revenue of 2020. In the future, the thermal management business of new energy vehicles will continue to develop and is expected to build a second growth curve for the company.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.571 billion + 27.9%), RMB 2.397 billion (52.6%) and RMB 3.398 billion (+ 41.8%) respectively; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company is 108 million yuan (+ 33.2%), 174 million yuan (+ 61.7%), 239 million yuan + 37.2%) respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.38/0.62/0.85 yuan respectively. We use the segment valuation method to value the company. The target market value of the company in 2022 is RMB 5.322 billion, corresponding to pe3.0 billion in 2022 52 times, corresponding to the target price of RMB 18.92 in 2022. Maintain the "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk tip: the investment scale of wind power and the planning of new installed capacity are less than expected, the gross profit margin decreases due to intensified competition, the acquisition and integration is unfavorable, the development of new energy vehicle business is less than expected, and the assumptions are less than expected
