\u3000\u3000 Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) (002405)
Event overview: on January 16, the company released the performance forecast of 2021 annual report: it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 2.90-3.1 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 35.0% – 44.3% over the same period of last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 100-130 million, an increase of 132.7% – 142.5% over the same period of last year; The net profit after non deduction was RMB 40-60 million, an increase of 112.4% – 118.5% over the same period of last year. The revenue side greatly exceeded our previous expectations.
The business recovered across the board, and the revenue side hit a record high. In the whole year, the operating revenue of the company is expected to reach 2.90-3.1 billion yuan, which is the peak since listing, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.0% – 44.3%. According to our judgment, there are mainly the following reasons: 1) the advanced auxiliary driving and automatic driving business benefits from the substantial increase in commercial mass production cooperation, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach 65% +; 2) The high margin business based on location big data services has been continuously recognized and affirmed by government and enterprise customers, and is expected to show high growth. According to our prediction, the growth rate of this business may reach 50% +; 3) Affected by the sales growth of high-end models, the company’s vehicle specification level navigation business continues to maintain a growth trend, and is expected to achieve a growth rate of 40% + during the period; 4) The Internet of vehicles business benefits from the acceleration of commercialization, and the revenue is expected to increase by 40% in 21 years; 5) Although the chip business is affected by the tight supply of automotive electronic chips and the increase of raw material prices, its product shipments and revenue contribution still increase significantly throughout the year, which is expected to reach 20% + growth. In terms of single quarter, Q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.04-1.24 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year growth rate of 68.3% – 100.6% and a month-on-month growth rate of 56.4% – 86.5%; It is estimated that the profit side Q4 will achieve RMB 90-120 million in a single quarter, showing a quarterly trend of improvement (the first three quarters of 2021 will achieve (- 45 million yuan, – 10 million yuan and 14 million yuan respectively). We judge that there are three main reasons: 1) the revenue side will improve quarter by quarter; 2) Active cost control; 3) Income from raised funds increased.
In the new year of orders, we are optimistic about the butterfly change of the profit model under the closed loop of “compliance + map + positioning”. Following Daimler’s orders, the release of Volvo’s “cloud compliance”, “high-precision map” and “automatic driving service platform” also clearly shows the business closed loop behind the orders, that is, the home run from “information compliance – Data Modeling – base map verification – function display – positioning assistance”. Since then, Ford orders have also come one after another, and subsequent orders are more worthy of expectation. So far, we emphasize again that the inflection point of the company has come. At the same time, the three in one data service annual fee model of “compliance + map + positioning” has also been officially opened, and the annual service fee income of a single vehicle varies from several hundred yuan according to different models. According to our calculations, the market of L2 and above automatic driving vehicle data annual fees (i.e. cloud services) considering only the most rigid needs will reach more than ten billion yuan in 2025.
Investment suggestion: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 110 / 38 / 580 million in 21-23 years, and the current market value corresponds to 103 / 69 times of PE in 22 / 23 years. We believe that the company has the status of “national team” of automobile data security, higher competition barriers and broad follow-up market space. Therefore, the “recommended” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: impact of global auto market fluctuation; The recovery of upstream supply is less than expected; The R & D process of new technology does not meet expectations; New orders were less than expected.
