\u3000\u3000 China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036)
Revenue and performance growth reached a new high
Recently, the company released the performance express for 2021: the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was + 23.20% (year-on-year in the first three quarters + 22.21%), and the operating revenue was + 14.03% (year-on-year in the first three quarters + 13.54%). Annual weighted roe16 94% (18.11% in the first three quarters), year-on-year + 1.21pct.
The fundamentals of the company are stable and have continued its consistent excellent performance. Both revenue and performance showed double-digit rapid growth, with growth rates reaching new highs in recent 6 and 8 years respectively, and ranking first and third among the stock banks that have disclosed data. The accelerated release of the company's performance is mainly due to the accelerated expansion of net interest income, in which the net interest margin contributed the main force.
Q4 net interest margin improved month on month, and asset negative structure was optimized in both directions
According to estimates, the company's Q4 single quarter net interest margin has increased by + 4bp month on month for two consecutive quarters. In the case of the overall downward interest rate in Q4 market, we judge that the company mainly relies on structural optimization to improve the interest margin. On the asset side, the company may continue the trend of Q3 and continue to increase the loan with relatively high yield. On the liability side, the company increased the absorption of low-cost deposits. This can be seen from the year-on-year growth of the company's total deposits and the proportion in total liabilities at the end of Q4 compared with + 3.36pct and + 1.49pct at the end of Q3 respectively. In the market environment where the pressure to attract deposits is widespread, the growth rate of the company's deposits has increased instead of falling, and maintained a high level of 12.8%, reflecting the company's excellent customer base and strong strength to attract deposits.
Non interest continues to shine, and the development of wealth management can be expected
The company's annual non interest income increased by 20.73% year-on-year, with a growth rate of only 83bp lower than that in the first three quarters, maintaining a high level. The company has basically formed a big wealth management business model of expanding "big customer base", building "big platform" and building "big ecology", and various business revenues are expected to blossom in the future.
The non-performing rate reached a new low, and the provision coverage remained high
At the end of Q4, the company's non-performing rate rose -2bp to 0.91% month on month (MOM), which has declined for six consecutive quarters and is at the low level of listed banks. The provision coverage rate was 441.34%, with a month on month ratio of -1.8pct; The loan allocation ratio was 4.03% and - 0.1pct month on month, both of which were at the leading level of listed large and medium-sized banks.
Looking forward to the future, we believe that the real estate risk of CMB is controllable and the asset quality will remain resilient: first, the main line of stable policy growth and risk prevention is very clear. With the marginal relaxation of the financial policy of the real estate industry and under the guidance of the bottom line thinking of the policy, the risk of housing related loans is controllable as a whole. Second, the company has a good customer structure. As of the end of Q3 last year, the balance of customers with high credit rating accounted for 86.74%, and the balance of real estate strategic customers of the head office and branches accounted for 64.78%.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about the company's big wealth management strategy and maintain the "buy" rating
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) is the benchmark of retail transformation and the force of wealth management, with good asset quality and abundant capital ammunition. Under the good credit environment this year, it is expected to take the lead in enjoying the policy dividend of credit repair and give play to the flywheel effect of the value cycle chain of great wealth management. We are optimistic about the business growth space of the company under the retail 3.0 mode. It is estimated that the performance growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2023 will be 15.27% / 16.05% respectively. The current share price of the company corresponds to 1.47 times Pb in 2022. We give it a target valuation of 1.95 times Pb, corresponding to the target price of 63.72 yuan / share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the economic downturn exceeded expectations; The express report is the group data for preliminary accounting, and the annual report shall prevail
