\u3000\u3000 Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816)
Event:
The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021: it is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.65-1.73 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 95% – 105%, excluding the impact of goodwill impairment of RMB 484 million in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 24% – 30%; It is estimated that the non net profit deducted will be RMB 1.42-1.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 140% – 154%. Excluding the impact of goodwill impairment loss, it will increase by 32% – 40% year-on-year.
Comments:
Q4 performance continued to increase, and the profit margin improved year-on-year. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 single quarter will be RMB 410-490 million, with a significant year-on-year turnaround. After excluding the impact of goodwill impairment, the company will increase by 29% – 54% year-on-year; It is expected to deduct non net profit of RMB 310-390 million, with a year-on-year increase of 25% – 58% after excluding the impact of goodwill impairment. Considering the price increase of domestic sales and the increase of the proportion of domestic sales in October, the profit margin is expected to improve year-on-year, driving the company’s profit to continue a high growth rate.
Domestic and foreign sales made concerted efforts, and the annual performance was beautiful. 1) At the domestic end, the company actively adjusted stores, accelerated the layout of large stores and comprehensive stores, opened more than 000 new stores (single store caliber) throughout the year, and significantly improved the level of the same store. The advantage product leisure sofa grew steadily, and the three high potential categories of customization, function and mattress grew rapidly. The company makes concerted efforts through channels, products and management to enhance domestic sales and enhance market share. 2) On the export side, the growth rate of Q4 export revenue is expected to drop slightly. However, considering the broad overseas market space, the company actively adjusts the structure and builds a New Mexico base, and the market share is expected to be further improved in the future. In addition, with the price of raw materials and sea freight peaking, the export profit margin is expected to improve and release the profit elasticity.
It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2023 will be 3.36 and 4.11 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 21.4 and 17.5 times respectively. Considering the company’s rich product matrix, the “1 + N + X” diversified channel layout, the large store model promotes category integration, the regional retail center improves operation efficiency, the company’s medium and long-term growth path is clear, and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of real estate is lower than expected, and the channel expansion is lower than expected
