\u3000\u3000 Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (300363)
Event overview
On January 16, 2022, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) released the performance forecast for 2021: the company expects to achieve an annual operating revenue of 3.004 billion yuan – 3.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45% – 50%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year will be 500-532 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54% – 64%; It is expected that the net profit of non parent company deduction in the whole year will be 519 million yuan – 548 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80% – 90%.
The performance exceeded expectations, and the revenue side exceeded the 3 billion yuan mark
It is estimated that the operating revenue will reach 3.004 billion yuan – 3.108 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 45% – 50%.
Quarter by quarter, Q4 is expected to achieve revenue of 932 million yuan – 1.034 billion yuan, a new high in a single quarter. It is expected to increase by 60% – 77% year-on-year and 20% – 34% month on month. The revenue side shows an increasing trend quarter by quarter. We think it benefits from: 1. The cdmo project structure of raw materials continues to be optimized, especially the proportion of advanced intermediates and API with high added value and high gross profit. 2. The replenishment of the company’s new capacity in 2021 also drives the growth of the revenue side.
Under the loss of new business, the profit side still has super excellent performance
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year will be 500-532 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54% – 64%; It is expected that the net profit of non parent company deduction in the whole year will be 519 million yuan – 548 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80% – 90%.
In terms of business segments, API cdmo contributes all profits, preparation cdmo and cell gene therapy cdmo are in the stage of gradually delivering customer projects and have a certain income contribution, but they are in the period of high investment. It is expected that the two new business segments will reduce the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the consolidated statements by about 100 million yuan. Throughout the year, the company’s overall profit margin was about 16.6% – 17.6%, with the loss of new business added back, the profit margin reached 20%, mainly due to the continuous improvement of the company’s profitability with the further improvement of the company’s capacity utilization and operation efficiency and the optimization of product structure.
In the era of boten 3.0, Trinity international cdmo service providers welcome the new wave
After 2022, the drug substance cdmo + Preparation cdmo + biological cdmo Troika will keep pace.
1) API cdmo: the driving force of short-term performance growth and the acceleration of product structure upgrading. The USD 217 million large order contract announced on November 30, 2021 drives the certainty and high elasticity of next year’s performance.
2) preparation cdmo: medium and long-term growth point, API + Preparation integrated service mode is deepened, moat, laboratory R & D and commercial production capacity are under active construction, and the future can be expected.
3) biological cdmo: medium and long-term growth point, outsourcing blue ocean market with unmet precision card position – cell gene therapy “track”, the three-stage capability circle is increasing step by step, and it is expected to become the first echelon of global cell gene therapy cdmo after 2025.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 510 million yuan, 890 million yuan and 990 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 57%, 75% and 11%, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of performance falling short of expectations, new business investment risk and fixed asset investment risk.
