\u3000\u3000 Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) (688023)
Taking the median value, it is expected that the revenue growth rate of Q4 in a single quarter will be 44.87%, and the endogenous high growth will be restored. High investment will ensure the competitiveness of the new track. Thanks to the continuous growth of the revenue scale of cloud security platform and big data security platform, the revenue of new products such as data security and Xinchuang cloud security maintained a rapid growth trend, and the revenue of security services increased rapidly. Among them, the scale of SaaS increased steadily. In 2021, the operating revenue was RMB 1.812 billion to RMB 1.839 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.0% to 39.0%, Taking the median Q4, the single quarter revenue was about 960 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.87%, restoring high growth. While continuously improving the competitiveness of existing platforms, the company also accelerated to increase investment in new strategic directions such as data security, network related crime, information innovation products, new generation intelligent gateway products and Internet of vehicles security. In the 21st year, the R & D expenses and sales expenses are expected to increase by about 55.52% – 59.51% year-on-year, resulting in a decrease in the net profit attributable to the parent company of 92.54% – 88.82% to 10-15 million yuan, High investment ensures future competitiveness.
The data security policy promoted the sustained high prosperity of the industry. Based on the product strength, the company drove the rapid growth of revenue. The acceleration of security services in the first half of the year affected the cash flow. Security service business and security platform products are becoming more and more mature, and are expected to continue the trend of high growth. In the first half of 2021, the prosperity of the network security industry continued to improve, and the promotion of national data security related laws and regulations led to a new increase in the data security business demand of the network security industry; At the same time, security requirements such as cloud computing will still drive the company’s high growth. In the first half of 2021, the growth rate of the company’s security platform products will reach 37.85%, and the growth rate of security service business will reach 61.94%. The high growth rate since several quarters continues to confirm the growing maturity of the company’s related products and services. With the further popularization of multi Cloud Architecture and the rapid release of big data security and Internet of things security requirements, the company is expected to continue the high growth trend of network security platform by virtue of highly competitive products such as ailpha big data intelligent security platform and multi cloud security and management platform “Anheng cloud”.
The rapid expansion of personnel, the expenditure of equity incentive expenses and the superposition of network protection actions brought about a high increase in safety and service in advance, which partially affected the cash flow, but laid a foundation for the construction of the company’s R & D team and the sustained high growth of business in the future. In the first half of 2021, the net cash flow from operating activities was – 346 million yuan, a decrease of 127.18% over the same period of the previous year, and the net profit attributable to the parent was – 175 million yuan, a decrease of 192.18% year-on-year. The main reason is that the company is in the stage of rapid development. From the second half of last year to the first half of this year, the scale of personnel increased rapidly, and the number of R & D personnel alone increased by 46.2% (an increase of 369), As a result, the cost of wage expenditure and other costs increased rapidly, and the cash outflow paid to employees increased by 58.1%, resulting in an increase in seasonal losses. In addition, the company is implementing equity incentive. In the first half of the year, the share based payment fee of RMB 44.1115 million was confirmed, and then the network protection action brought a high increase in security services in advance, which also partially affected the cash flow. We believe that although the rapid expansion of personnel and equity incentive expenses bring phased pressure on the cash flow and profit side, they are also the only way for the company’s team construction, which will lay a foundation for the sustained and high growth of the company’s business in the future.
The “strategy + technology” card is a high-quality track, and the company has the first mover advantage in the field of cloud security. 1) Situational awareness, cloud security and ailpha big data continue to promote the rapid growth of the platform: Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) is the leader of the situational awareness market and the main builder and promoter of situational awareness in the public security and Internet information industry. According to the safety bull, it is estimated that the overall market scale of situation awareness will exceed 5 billion yuan in 2020, and the CAGR will reach 35.72%; Ailpha big data intelligent security platform integrates security modules such as large-scale inventory and big data real-time intelligent analysis to provide customers with global situation awareness and create a new intelligent and safe operation mode; 2) Cloud security services may become the segment track with the greatest potential in the network security industry. According to CCID’s statistics, the scale of China’s cloud security service market reached 3.78 billion yuan in 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 44.8%. It is expected that the market scale will reach 11.57 billion yuan in 2021, with an annual compound growth rate of 45.2%. The growth of cloud security track is expected to accelerate; 3) The valuation system of leading cloud security manufacturers is expected to be reconstructed. Five advantages lay the direction of cloudy, and China’s Government cloud and many large enterprises have moved towards cloudy. Third party manufacturers are more suitable for unified services than IAAs manufacturers themselves, and can form platform and scale advantages in the update iteration of customers and cooperative manufacturers. The company prospectively arranges new tracks such as cloud security and big data security, with first mover advantages.
Maintain the “buy” rating. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 1.919/2.697/3.723 billion respectively, with a growth rate of 45.0% / 40.6% / 38.0% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 189 / 284 / 446 million respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies; The growth rate of the company’s security services and platforms was lower than expected; There is a risk of errors in key assumptions.
