\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
Key investment points
Announcement of 2021 performance forecast: a year-on-year increase of 47% – 72% and an increase in gross profit margin; The prospect of platform layout is promising
1) performance in 2021: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 580-680 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47% – 72%, benefiting from the year-on-year increase of silk screen printing equipment sales + gross profit margin. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction is expected to be RMB 540 million to RMB 640 million, with a year-on-year increase of 60% – 89%.
2) Q4 performance in 2021: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 124-224 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3% – 87% and a month on month change of – 39% to 10%. The net profit after deduction is expected to be RMB 118-218 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2% to 88% and a month-on-month increase of q3-36% – 18%.
3) hjt equipment orders: as of September 2021, the company’s hjt equipment orders in hand reached 1.8 billion (according to the company’s announcement). Short term: benefiting from the “large-scale” technological change in the photovoltaic industry, the screen printing equipment welcomes the renewal and iteration. The company is the leader in the market share of 70% of screen printing equipment, providing guarantee for the performance growth of the company from 2021 to 2022. Medium and long term: the company is a leader in heterojunction (hjt) equipment, with “first mover advantage” + “whole line supply capacity”. The supply capacity of hjt whole line equipment has been realized (increased from 25% of perc equipment to 95% of hjt equipment). The company has launched the third generation of 600MW capacity heterojunction equipment, and has successfully cooperated with Tongwei, Anhui Huasheng, Atlas, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Aikang, REC and other customers downstream, and has won GW orders. At the same time, the company has a platform layout and is a leader in the field of semiconductor and OLED laser cutting.
Hjt equipment: the compound growth rate of the industry will exceed 80% in the next five years; The company’s 2.8 billion hjt fixed increase issuance has been completed and looks forward to another breakthrough
1) market space of hjt equipment industry: it is expected that the market space of hjt equipment will exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 80% in 2020-2025. If the net interest rate remains 20% (8 billion net profit), 25 times PE will be given. It is estimated that the reasonable total market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan! We judge that the market share of the industry’s leading market is expected to exceed 50%, and the market value is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the future.
2) the company’s fixed increase of 2.8 billion yuan has been successfully completed, which is used for projects with an annual output of 40 sets of PECVD, PVD and automation equipment. The issue price is 645 yuan / share. Among them, the important downstream hjt battery manufacturer Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) was allocated with a fixed increase of 100 million yuan and an additional lock period to 12 months. Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) previously announced that it plans to invest a total of 3 billion yuan to expand 5gwhjt Battery + components in the next five years. The project is expected to be carried out in three phases.
Laser equipment: obtain the order of semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment; OLED laser equipment is recognized by BOE, a key customer
1) semiconductor field: the company has obtained Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) (the first in China) and Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) orders for semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment, and signed trial orders with five other enterprises. The semiconductor wafer laser modification cutting equipment has been developed and is in the process of product verification.
2) panel field: the company’s flexible screen bending laser cutting equipment has won two sets of orders for BOE’s 6th generation AMOLED production line project to manufacture high-end display screens for world-famous mobile phone brands. The company is the first enterprise in China to successfully develop this equipment.
Profit forecast: optimistic about the company’s strategic position in the future development of photovoltaic and semiconductor industries and high growth in the next five years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 680.8/1.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 52% / 46% / 48%, corresponding to 93 / 64 / 43 times of PE. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the propulsion speed of heterojunction battery does not meet the expectation; Photovoltaic demand is lower than expected; The downstream expansion was less than expected.
