\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
Event: the performance forecast for 2021 was released on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) January 16, 2022.
Key investment points
The performance forecast exceeded market expectations and met our expectations
Wind unanimously expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 2021 will be 600 million yuan. The company’s performance forecast predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 580-680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.1% – 72.4%, and the median performance forecast will be 630 million yuan, exceeding the market expectation and in line with our expectation; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 540-640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 59.5% – 89.1%. In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 120-220 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 3% – 87%. The performance of hjt’s whole line equipment leader still increased at the end of the perc era.
Photovoltaic equipment contributes the most performance flexibility. In 2022, hjt will accelerate cost reduction and efficiency increase
We expect that the expansion of hjt in 2022 will be driven by new players & old players with less perc capacity. We expect that the expansion of hjt in 2022 will be 20-30gw. We expect Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) as the leader of hjt whole line equipment, it is expected to receive new orders for 15-20gw hjt whole line in 2022, with a market share of 70 +%. In 2022, the cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt will be accelerated, including the introduction of “microcrystalline technology with mass production efficiency of 25% + smbb + silver clad copper + domestic silver slurry + wafer slicing” into mass production. By the end of 2022, the manufacturing cost per w will be leveled with that of perc. We expect that both new and old players in the industry will start a large-scale expansion of hjt in 2023, and the industrial expansion will reach more than 50gw in 2023.
Semiconductor equipment: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) won the first order for wafer laser slotting equipment, confirming the company’s R & D strength. The wafer cutting equipment is basically monopolized by Japan disco, with a market share of more than 90%. Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) is the first manufacturer in China to supply semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment for Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) . The product verification of wafer laser modification and cutting equipment is about to be carried out, and the development of semiconductor equipment is smooth. In 2020, the market scale of wafer cutting equipment is about US $1.1 billion. We expect it to be about US $1.7/1.8 billion in 2021 / 2022 respectively, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) is expected to fully benefit from the localization process.
OLED equipment: break through the key customer BOE and supply the first OLED bending laser cutting equipment in China
The panel link equipment is divided into array, cell and module. The equipment accounts for 70%: 25%: 5% respectively. The Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) main layout is the laser of cell link and module link. The annual corresponding market space of laser equipment in panel industry is about 6 billion yuan. If the localization rate is 30%, the corresponding space is 2 billion yuan. Taking the OLED flexible screen bending cut equipment won the bid of BOE in Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) December 2021 as an example, the unit price of the equipment is 30 million yuan / set. Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) the bid winner corresponds to one BOE Mianyang and one BOE Chongqing. If the BOE screen is successfully verified on the client in the future, we judge that there is a large market space for the equipment.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as the leader of hjt whole line equipment with first mover advantage, the company fully benefits from the accelerated production expansion of hjt battery, and the long-term layout of Pan semiconductor field opens a broad growth space. We maintained the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 at RMB 631 / 919 / 1399 million, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price was 93 / 64 / 42 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the R & D of new products is less than the market expectation, and the expansion of hjt equipment is less than the market expectation.
