\u3000\u3000 Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) (300628)
Performance review
On the evening of January 14, the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected that the operating revenue will increase by 30% - 38% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 23% - 30% year-on-year, which was generally higher than expected.
Business analysis
The business development strategy is effective, and the performance of a single quarter is significantly improved month on month and year-on-year. It is estimated that the median revenue of Q4 single quarter in 21 was RMB 1.161 billion, with a month on month increase of 32.23% and a year-on-year increase of 46.32%; The median net profit attributable to the parent company was 399 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 3.14% and a year-on-year increase of 47.27%. Mainly due to the recovery of market demand, the business development strategy is effective. During the reporting period, the company was faced with challenges such as exchange rate fluctuation and raw material cost increase of 10%. The semi annual report showed that the gross profit margin of SIP and VCs decreased by 2.93 PP and 8.4 PP respectively year-on-year. However, the company responded to the macro challenges through strategic inventory. In May and September, the prices of some products were adjusted respectively, and the three fee rates decreased by 1.12 PCT year-on-year.
VCs products promote the transformation of "cloud + end" solutions and improve customer unit price. The company's customers are mainly medium to large enterprises. The company packages and deploys conference room scenarios such as cloud video, ume and meetingeye, and sells a full set of solutions from software end, system end to hardware end. Take the immersive meeting room solution as an example. The ceiling, wall and floor have sound absorption and noise removal functions. The full set of value is estimated to be millions, which is higher than the sales of pure hardware or software. In addition, there are solutions such as video dispatching, government party construction, telemedicine and double teacher classroom, which are expected to benefit from the development of digital economy. It is expected that CAGR will be 50% + in the next three years.
Cloud office terminal products continue to expand categories, and future performance has growth potential. Business earphone products have personal attributes. The unit price is lower than that of SIP phones. The purchase volume and re purchase rate are high and the space is larger. The company is a new entrant to the track and has the advantages of reusable SIP audio technology. At present, it has released three products and is increasing the category of terminal products. In the past two years, the epidemic has been normalized, video conferencing has led to demand growth, and offline Office Enterprise Communication deployment will also purchase headphones, with broad growth prospects in the future. The partner equity incentive fund of the company fully mobilizes the enthusiasm of senior management and is expected to achieve the assessment target of year-on-year growth rate of revenue of no less than 30% in 2021.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
We are optimistic about the company's SIP leading position and the prospect of VCs. It is estimated that the annual revenue from 21 to 23 will be RMB 3.691/4.674/5.843 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.628/2.73/2.589 billion, the EPS will be RMB 1.8/2.3/2.9, and the PE will be 45 / 35 / 28 times. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
Repeated overseas outbreaks; Exchange rate fluctuations; SIP market demand slows down; The expense rate is much lower than that of competitors, the net interest rate shows a downward trend, and whether the high net interest rate is sustainable; According to the reply of the stock exchange in 2020, there are still risks in the sustainable operation of dealers and their contribution to the company's performance
