\u3000\u3000 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (002371)
Performance review
On January 16, the company released the forecast of 2021 annual report. The company’s expected operating revenue in 2021 is 8.5-10.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40-80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 940-1.21 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 75-125%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was RMB 690-890 million, with a year-on-year increase of 250-350%. In line with market expectations.
Business analysis
The company has full orders in hand, the high prosperity of semiconductor equipment continues, and the company has deeply benefited from localization.
1) in the second half of 2022, the non net profit of the company increased rapidly, and the profit was continuously released with the scale effect. The company’s Q4 single quarter expected median revenue of 3.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.1%; Deduct non net profit of 263 million yuan, an increase of 11 times year-on-year. The company has sufficient orders, and the contract liabilities continue to increase from 3 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 5.5 billion yuan at the end of September 2021. The company has sufficient orders due to the high outlook of the industry and domestic substitution. The inventory amount in the first three quarters was 7.6 billion yuan, an increase of 54% over the end of 2020, indicating that the company actively increased goods preparation to cope with the significant increase in order sales.
2) in the future, China’s major logic fabs Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) will have capacity expansion plans for SMIC capital (100000 chips / month), SMIC Shenzhen (40000 chips / month) and SMIC port (100000 chips / month), and the main memory chip factories Changjiang storage (300000 chips / month) and Hefei Changxin (360000 chips / month) will continue to expand their capacity. We estimate that in the future, 12 inches The potential expansion capacity of the 8-inch domestic asset line in China is 1.2 million pieces / month and 420000 pieces / month. Under the background of Sino US trade friction, it will continue to help improve the localization rate of semiconductor equipment. Among the semiconductor segments, the prosperity of the equipment industry under the main line of localization is the most determined, and the company’s semiconductor equipment product line is the most complete, which is expected to benefit the most from domestic substitution. We believe that under the current trade situation, Chinese wafer factories have paid unprecedented attention to supply chain security, and the penetration rate of domestic semiconductor equipment has accelerated.
3) the company’s fixed increase of RMB 8.5 billion was realized. In recent years, the company has accelerated the research and development of advanced process equipment and expanded the etching technology horizontally to meet the needs of customers. At present, the company has 28nm technology and is developing 14-5nm process products. We believe that with the boost of fixed value-added projects, the company has a multi product line layout and continues to take the lead in technology in many fields, and there is a huge market space for localization in the future. The company will raise 8.5 billion yuan and plans to invest 3.8 billion yuan to expand the production base with an annual output of 500 sets of integrated circuit equipment, 500 sets of emerging semiconductor equipment, 300 sets of LED equipment and 700 sets of photovoltaic equipment; 3.1 billion yuan invested in equipment R & D and 800 million yuan in electronic components. The output value of new projects reached 7.9 billion yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company’s revenue to be 10 / 14 / 18.9 billion yuan in 2021-23, an increase of 5% / 3% / 6% and 65% / 40% / 35% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.04/13.5/1.74 billion, increased by 16% / 14% / 14% and increased by 93% / 30% / 29% respectively. The corresponding P / E was 139x / 106X / 82x and P / s was 15x / 11x / 8x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The technological breakthrough was less than expected, the downstream expansion and capacity climb were less than expected, and the Sino US trade risk increased.
