\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
Event: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 580 ~ 680 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.1% ~ 72.4%; In Q4 alone, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 124 ~ 224 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3% ~ 187%.
Core view: according to the unanimous expectation of wind, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 600 million yuan, which is in the performance range announced by the company. The median net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 is expected to be 174 million yuan in a single quarter. The high performance growth is mainly due to the continuation of perc’s production expansion bonus and the steady improvement of the company’s silk screen printing equipment sales. Looking forward to the future, on the one hand, TOPCON and hjt have a variety of technical routes in parallel, which are expected to continue to jointly drive the demand for silk screen printing equipment. On the other hand, the company’s hjt core PECVD equipment has obvious competitive advantages. The bidding market accounts for more than 60% in 2021. We believe that with the gradual promotion of hjt commercialization, hjt equipment is expected to bring new performance increment to the company, The company is expected to enter the hjt order revenue recognition period in 2022.
The dividend of perc era continues, and the large volume of hjt and laser equipment is expected to become a new performance growth point of the company in the future: according to the incomplete statistics of Polaris Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic network, the production expansion plan of battery chips will reach 169.2gw in 2021, of which the scale of perc is estimated to exceed 100gw, and the production time is expected to be concentrated in 2021-2022, driven by the integration of silicon chips, battery chips and components at the manufacturing end of the industrial chain, 2021 is still a big year for perc to expand its production. The sales volume of perc screen printing equipment, the company’s main business, has increased steadily, keeping the company’s performance at a high growth rate. Looking forward to 2022, from the perspective of forward-looking indicators, by the end of Q3, the company’s contract liabilities were 2.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35%, and the scale of hand orders continued to expand. ① in terms of silk screen printing equipment, TOPCON and hjt jointly promoted the demand for silk screen printing equipment in parallel; ② In terms of hjt core PECVD equipment, the company successively won the bid for Huasheng phase II, Aikang Taixing, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , REC, Mingyang and other projects; ③ Laser equipment: customer acceptance has been achieved in both OLED and semiconductor fields, and supply and trial orders have been received. The company’s all-round layout of “three horizontal and three vertical” is further deepened and is expected to contribute to the performance increment in 2022.
Profitability is enhanced, and the trend of gross profit margin improvement is expected to continue: the announcement shows that the company’s overall sales gross profit margin has increased year-on-year. From the data of the third quarter, the company’s overall gross profit margin is 38.41%, year-on-year + 3.77pct, mainly at the end of perc’s production expansion. The company does not take the market share of perc silk screen printing equipment as the primary goal, rationally selects high-quality customers, and attaches importance to profit quality and payment collection. Looking forward to the future, we expect that the equipment premium at the initial stage of hjt commercialization is high, and the gross profit margin is expected to further increase under the trend of diversified revenue structure.
The planned increase in the production capacity of heavy vacuum equipment will be arranged in advance to cooperate with the outbreak of hjt to expand its competitive advantage: according to the summary of public information, the orders obtained by Mai for PECVD in 2021 include Tongwei Jintang 250MW, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) 1.2gw, Huasheng phase II 1.8gw, Aikang Taixing 600MW and its 1.8gw intended orders, REC Singapore 400MW and Mingyang 1GW, Throughout the year, the bidding scale of hjt was about 8GW (the actual landing scale exceeded 8GW), of which about 5.25gw was obtained by PECVD of the company (based on the sum of the above information), and the bidding market share of core equipment exceeded 60%. The company’s third-generation hjt single line has the advantage of large capacity, reaching 600MW, so the actual landing market share of orders is expected to be higher. The company has completed the issuance of fixed growth in December 21, raising 2.812 billion yuan, of which 2.3 billion yuan is invested in the heterojunction Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery chip equipment industrialization project, which is expected to form an annual production capacity of 40 sets of hjt core equipment (PECVD, PVD) and automation equipment within three years, with an annual output value of 6 billion yuan. The company plans the production capacity of heavy vacuum equipment in advance, and is expected to further expand its competitive advantage in the future with the outbreak of hjt industry.
Investment suggestion: we expect the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 37.2%, 37.3% and 46.2% respectively, the net profit growth rate to be 59.6%, 36.3% and 46.0% respectively, and the corresponding PE to be 94, 69 and 47 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 746 yuan, which is equivalent to the dynamic P / E ratio of 64 in 2023.
Risk warning: the new downstream installed capacity is less than expected; The commercialization progress of hjt is less than expected; Competition in the equipment industry has intensified.
