\u3000\u3000 Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) (300049)
Event: recently released the performance forecast for 2021, the company's annual net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 90 ~ 105 million, a year-on-year increase of 45.4% ~ 69.6%, deducting non net profit of RMB 85 ~ 100 million, a year-on-year increase of 24.7% ~ 46.7%.
The performance meets the objective requirements of equity incentive. Quarterly, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 32 ~ 47 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% ~ 49.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 25.3% according to the median calculation. In 2021, the company's employee stock ownership plan amortized share based payment expenses of about 16.7 million yuan. The impact of non recurring profits and losses on the net profit is expected to be no more than 5 million yuan, and the "net profit" restored to the performance assessment is 100 ~ 116 million yuan, which meets the target requirements of equity incentive.
The independent pricing of drug business ushered in the second wave of growth, and the device business recovered under the low base. The company's exclusive product, Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet, is the first anti fibrosis drug approved by the State Food and drug administration. At present, there are about 7 million patients with liver cirrhosis in China every year. Assuming that the penetration rate of anti fibrosis traditional Chinese medicine is 10% and the company's market share is 25%, the market space of Ruangan Tablet is more than 1 billion yuan. With the company's gradual development of out of hospital market, it has successfully realized the transformation to independent pricing sales, It is expected that the sales revenue and net profit of the pharmaceutical business will increase significantly in 2021. Due to the impact of covid-19 epidemic, the business in the device sector is weaker than that in 2020, and will resume growth in 2021.
The company is a leading enterprise in the diagnosis and treatment of liver diseases in China, and its performance driven by equipment + drugs + services has ushered in an inflection point. The FibroScan liver fibrosis diagnostic equipment of the company is the first in the world and has become the first choice for noninvasive real-time detection of clinical liver fibrosis; The exclusive product Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet is recommended for the clinical guide of liver fibrosis. Benefiting from the national support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry and the development of the company's OTC market outside the hospital, it is expected to become the main driving force of performance; Based on pediatric medical health management and chronic liver disease management, the profit model of successfully expanding service business. The assessment target of equity incentive of the company is 2021-2023, and the net profit is RMB 150 million, 250 million. The rapid growth shows the confidence of the management.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 150 million, 250 million, corresponding to pe37, 24 and 15 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: competition risk, risk of rising raw material prices, less than expected expansion outside the hospital, less than expected localization of FibroScan, and risk of overseas epidemic recurrence.
