\u3000\u3000 Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) (600089)
Event: the company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.8 ~ 7.3 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 173% ~ 194%. It is expected to deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 5.6 ~ 6.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 205 ~ 232%, exceeding the market expectation. According to the performance forecast, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.609 ~ 2.109 billion in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 73% ~ 127% and a month on month change of - 23% ~ + 1%.
Although the price of silicon material has entered the downward channel, the good demand and the expansion of silicon wafer production will effectively support the price, and the company's technical transformation + capacity expansion ensure the high growth of performance.
Although Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) and other silicon material enterprises will release silicon material capacity in 2022 (it is expected that China's silicon material capacity is expected to exceed 1 million tons by the end of 22), some capacity will not form effective capacity in 2022 under the background that the newly put into operation capacity still needs to climb; At the same time, the terminal demand continues to improve under the background of the decline in the price of the industrial chain. We maintain our judgment that the photovoltaic demand is expected to exceed 220gw in 2022. The strong demand for silicon material will play a certain supporting role in its price, and the possibility of rapid and sharp price decline is low. We judge that the average price of silicon material in 2022 is expected to remain above 160 yuan / kg.
On the one hand, the company will carry out technical transformation of Xinjiang polysilicon production line, which is expected to be completed in 2022h1, driving the production capacity to increase from the current 66000 T / A to 100000 t / A, and the production cost is expected to be further reduced after sufficient cold hydrogenation capacity; On the other hand, the company is steadily promoting the construction of Baotou 100000 t / a project. It is expected that 2022h2 will be mechanically completed and reach production by the end of the year, driving the company's total production capacity to 200000 t / a by the end of the year.
The State Grid's "14th five year plan" UHV plan exceeded expectations, and the company's power transmission and transformation business performance is expected to maintain a high growth.
According to China Energy News, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the State Grid plans to build a total investment of 380 billion yuan in the "24 AC and 14 DC" UHV project, and the State Grid plans to start 13 UHV lines in "10 AC and 3 DC" in 2022, which is significantly higher than the UHV plan (7-circuit UHV DC) proposed by the State Grid's "carbon peak and carbon neutralization action plan" in March 2021. The company leads the industry in the market share of UHV Transformer Products (the historical bid winning rate is 25 ~ 30%), and its independently developed ± 1100kV UHV converter transformer and other products have been listed in the list of the first major technical equipment projects in the energy field, and a breakthrough has been made in the key technology of UHV DC bushing. In the future, with the UHV construction scale exceeding expectations, The company's power transmission and transformation business is expected to maintain high growth.
Maintain the "buy" rating: according to the company's production expansion rhythm and judgment on the future silicon material price, we raised the company's profit forecast. It is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 7.091/88.40/10.439 billion in 21-23 years (up 41% / 57% / 68%), corresponding to eps1.5% 87 / 2.33/2.76 yuan. The current share price corresponds to 10 / 8 / 7 times of PE in 21-23 years. The two main businesses of the company (new energy industry and supporting projects, and power transmission and transformation business) are in an important position in the energy system dominated by new energy power generation under the background of carbon neutralization. The company is a leader in the above business industries. In the future, it will maintain steady growth and "buy" rating with the improvement of industry prosperity.
Risk tip: the production capacity and sales volume of silicon material are lower than expected; The new installed capacity of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected; Overseas business operation risk.
