\u3000\u3000 Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) (002405)
Event overview
On January 16, 2021, the company disclosed the performance forecast for 2021. The revenue in 2021 was + 35% – 44% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent turned loss into profit, about RMB 100-130 million; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits is about 40-60 million yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
Revenue exceeded expectations, and the data compliance platform boosted the growth of the company’s intelligent driving business
1. The company’s income increased rapidly and turned losses into profits. The company’s revenue in 2021 is about 2.9-3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35% – 44%; Taking the median in the forecast, it is calculated that the company’s revenue in the fourth quarter is about 1.137 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter is about 157 million yuan. According to the company’s performance forecast, the main reason for the company’s net profit to turn loss into profit is that the operating revenue of advanced auxiliary driving and automatic driving business and Internet of vehicles business has increased significantly year-on-year in 2020.
2. Low marginal cost, data compliance platform, navigation and other businesses leverage the company’s intelligent driving growth. In 2021, the company’s revenue increased by nearly 900 million yuan year-on-year, while the deduction of non net profit increased by nearly 400 million yuan year-on-year, and the marginal cost decreased significantly. We believe that it is mainly due to [faster growth of high gross profit business + prominent scale effect]: 1) we believe that the growth of high gross profit businesses such as auxiliary driving, navigation and data platform in 2021 may be higher than that of the company’s low gross profit business, The company said that its high-precision map, autopilot data compliance platform, autopilot solution and commercial mass production cooperation of intelligent Internet connection business increased significantly. We believe that the data compliance platform landed frequently in the fourth quarter, and pried the business orders such as high-precision map and autopilot scheme. The change of business structure leads to the increase of the company’s gross profit margin and the decrease of marginal cost. 2) The company has invested heavily in high-precision map drawing for many years, and its investment cost is mainly linked to the company’s R & D personnel. Therefore, under the condition of rapid growth of income, there will be scale effect. 3. In addition, the increase in the income of fixed increase raised funds and investment income have also contributed to the company’s performance income.
The data security platform has signed four overseas leading OEMs with broad prospects and strong profitability
1. The company’s data security platform has signed four leading car companies and will continue to expand horizontally. Since November 2021, the company has received orders from Daimler, Volvo and Ford for data compliance platforms in China, charging according to the volume of each vehicle. (BMW single signed in 2019). We believe that the data security platform business will realize a sustainable profit model such as platform construction fee + subscription fee, with strong profitability. At the same time, Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) as a national team of graphic merchants, it has high competitiveness, and 4D will continue to expand horizontally in this emerging business.
2. The compliance platform leads the vertical development of the business and opens up the closed loop of the company’s intelligent driving business. At present, the company has signed a high-precision map and automatic driving development platform with Volvo, which fully proves that the data compliance business can pry the orders of other business lines of the company. As the business depth of the data compliance platform, high-precision maps and other businesses may continue to follow the compliance platform in large quantities, promoting the company to enter a period of rapid growth.
The cockpit chip ac8015 has been launched into the 20 + model project, with the goal of shipping millions in 2022
1. Jiefa cockpit chip has entered the front loading market. The cockpit chip ac8015 self-developed by jiefa technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary of 4D, achieved front loading and mass production in March 2021. It is oriented to medium and low-end models and has the advantages of high cost performance, integrated solutions, localized services and so on. At present, it has been designated by many vehicle manufacturers and applied to one core multi screen (instrument + IVI), single LCD instrument, central control and high-end entertainment information system. According to zoth automobile research, the cumulative supply of ac8015 exceeded 200K, and the applied OEMs include SAIC mingjue, GAC motor, GAC Mitsubishi, etc. The company expects that the shipment volume will exceed the target of one million by the end of 2022.
2. The second generation of cockpit chip will be launched in 2022, positioning at the medium and high end. According to zoth automotive research, jiefa will launch the sixth generation soc-ac80252, and the first batch of samples will be provided to customers for product development in 2002. AC8025 will be oriented to medium and high-level intelligent cockpit, and will significantly improve the performance of CPU, GPU and NPU. It has stronger computing power, complies with iso26262 functional safety certification, and supports the requirements of more intelligent cockpit interactive application scenarios. We believe that jiefa chip will continue to benefit from the localization and substitution of chips, continue to expand the market and promote the growth of the company with its own strength and cost performance.
Investment advice
Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) as a leader in automotive intelligence with the background of the national team, it will give priority to the improvement of road traffic, passenger cars and other intelligence. Based on the company’s performance forecast, the company’s data compliance platform and chip growth exceeding expectations, we raised the forecast of the company’s revenue of RMB 2.68/32.8/3.99 billion in 21-23 to RMB 3.01/39.7/5.21 billion, and the forecast of earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.03/0.07/0.16 in 21-23 to RMB 0.05/0.17/0.34, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 16.66/share on January 16, 2022, with PE of 341.7/95.8/48.7 times respectively, PS was 13.2 / 10.0 / 7.6 times respectively, maintaining the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk tips
1) risk of new product / business promotion falling short of expectations. 2) The risk of tight global supply of automotive chips. 3) The risk of macroeconomic downturn is that the development of intelligent automobile industry is less than expected.
