\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) (603063)
The company is a leading supplier of new energy power electronics and electrical transmission equipment in China.
The company's main products include wind power converters, photovoltaic inverters and electrical transmission products. From 2016 to 2020, the company's operating revenue increased from 808 million yuan to 2.339 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 30.44%; After experiencing the industry trough period from 2018 to 2019, the company's performance hit the bottom and rebounded in 2020, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 267 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 301.99%; In 2021q1-q3, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 17.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 177 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 27.97%.
Wind power converters: wind power converters have a leading market share and take the lead in the layout of offshore wind power converters.
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2025, the scale of China's converter market is expected to increase from 7.454 billion yuan to 13.867 billion yuan, with a four-year compound growth rate of 16.79%. The company's wind power converter products realize doubly fed model 1 XMW-6. Xmw, full power model 2 XMW-12. Full coverage of xmw. From 2017 to 2020, the company's sales of wind power converters achieved a three-year compound growth rate of 29.44%. The company's offshore wind power products passed the certification license of Beijing Jianheng Certification Center (CGC) in October 2017.
Photovoltaic inverter: the series inverter business is expected to benefit from the outbreak of China's distributed market.
The products provided by the company in the field of photovoltaic inverter manufacturing mainly include centralized photovoltaic inverter, distributed photovoltaic inverter and small and medium power series photovoltaic power generation system. In 2020, the company's PV inverter shipment reached 2019mw, ranking ninth among Chinese enterprises. At present, the proportion of newly added photovoltaic installed capacity in China continues to increase, and the promotion policy of the whole county is expected to further open the growth space of distributed photovoltaic. The company has rich case applications and accumulated experience in the distributed photovoltaic market, and can provide a variety of inverter models and product solutions for household scenarios and industrial and commercial photovoltaic.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leading supplier of new energy power electronics and electrical transmission equipment in China. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 237 million, RMB 450 million and RMB 603 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 11.19%, 90.02% and 34.08% respectively. The EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.54, 1.03 and 1.38 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 62, 33 and 25 times respectively. The average valuation of comparable companies in 2022 is 51 times. Compared with the average valuation of the benchmark industry, the company is given a valuation of 51 times in 2022, corresponding to the target market value of 23 billion yuan and a 55% increase in the current stock price. It is given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) the installed capacity of wind power PV is less than expected; 2) Fluctuations in raw material costs; 3) Product prices fell more than expected.
