\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy And Electric Power Co.Ltd(600116) (600116)
Key investment points
Event: the company released operating data. In 2021, the company's annual power generation was 2.78 billion hours, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%; The company achieved 13.22 billion kwh of electricity sales in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 16.72%; The average selling price of electricity was 0.4388 yuan / kWh (excluding tax), a year-on-year increase of 5.74%. Affected by the dry incoming water, the annual cumulative power generation of the company's hydropower station decreased slightly, and the growth of power demand of downstream users led to the growth of the company's annual power sales. At the same time, the average power sales price increased due to the market-oriented reform of electricity price and the linkage mechanism of electricity price.
Both the volume and price of power sales business rise, which is expected to drive revenue growth. By the end of 2021, the company's installed hydropower capacity had reached 746000 kW, an increase of 177.78% over the previous 270000 kW. Its business covered Wanzhou, Fuling, Qianjiang, Xiushan, Youyang, Liangjiang New areas and surrounding areas in Chongqing. In 2021, the company completed a total power generation of 2.78 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%; The accumulated on grid power was 2.75 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%; The accumulated electricity sales reached 13.22 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, and the average electricity sales price was 0.4388 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. It is expected that the increase of electricity sales + the increase of average electricity sales price will drive the growth of the company's revenue. In 2021, the annual actual power sales exceeded the planning target. According to the 14th five year plan of the company, the power sales will exceed 100 billion kwh in 2025, including market-oriented power sales of more than 80 billion kwh, and the power distribution business will continue to improve.
Actively expand market-oriented power sales areas, and start new growth in comprehensive energy services. At present, the company has obtained the qualification of market-oriented power sales in 8 provinces such as Chongqing, Shanghai, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong and Jiangxi. The regional expansion of power sales is significant, and the market-oriented power sales space has been opened in the future. At the same time, the company invested 200 million yuan to establish a "green industry development" platform to expand the comprehensive energy service business around the two sectors of scenario operation (market-oriented power sales, charging and replacing power asset operation management, digital management services, power market auxiliary services, energy storage business, etc.) and power asset investment. Various related businesses jointly empower the power sales business and expand the business margin, There is broad room for growth in the future.
Shut down backward manganese production capacity and industrial upgrading and transformation. According to the company's announcement, at present, the company has completed the asset liquidation of Chongqing manganese industry. The company expects that this asset disposal will affect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of 130 million yuan in 2021. After one-time withdrawal, it will have a certain impact on the company's performance, but it is a non recurring loss and will not affect the company's long-term development. At the same time, the company actively responded to the impact of impairment, has striven for compensation of 60 million yuan, and accelerated the construction of 80000 tons capacity in phase II of Guizhou Wuling manganese industry.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.49/0.63/0.75 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 25X / 19x / 16x. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of partial withering of incoming water; Electricity price fluctuation risk; The development of comprehensive energy business is less than expected.
