This week (May 16, 2022 – May 20, 2022, the same below): the building materials sector (SW) rose or fell by 2.78% this week. In the same period, the CSI 3 million and wandequan a index rose or fell by 2.23% and 2.63% respectively, and the excess returns were 0.55% and 0.15% respectively.
The price of bulk building materials last week is higher than that of cement in 2021 tons / week, which is higher than that of cement in 2021 tons / week. Regions with lower prices than last week: North China (- 12 yuan / ton), East China (- 19 yuan / ton), Yangtze River Delta (- 24 yuan / ton), pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei (- 15 yuan / ton), Yangtze River Basin (- 16 yuan / ton), Northwest (- 8 yuan / ton) and Central South (- 3 yuan / ton). This week, the average cement warehouse location of the national sample enterprises was 69.7%, which was + 0.3pct compared with last week and + 16.3pct compared with the same period in 2021. The average cement delivery rate (daily delivery rate / production capacity in process) of the national sample enterprises was 64.1%, which was + 4.5pct compared with last week and -13.9pct compared with the same period in 2021. （2）
Glass: according to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information this week, the average price of national float white glass is 1989 yuan / ton, which is – 50 yuan / ton compared with last week and – 688 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021. According to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information this week, the original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces in China was 64.52 million heavy boxes, up from + 1.21 million heavy boxes last week and + 51.8 million heavy boxes in the same period in 2021. (3) Glass fiber: the median turnover of alkali free 2400tex direct yarn this week was 5850 yuan / ton, compared with – 200 yuan / ton last week and – 300 yuan / ton in the same period in 2021.
Zhou’s view: the relaxation policy continued to increase, the five-year LPR decreased by 15bp, the bonds issued by three leading real estate enterprises were increased, the local real estate market increased significantly, reduced the down payment and relaxed the purchase restriction. We believe that with the accumulation of policy relaxation and the retreat of early restrictive factors, the industry fundamentals of the investment chain are closer and closer to the bottom, and the opportunities for building materials are also obvious. The materials benefiting from capital construction or construction are relatively more elastic, such as waterproof materials and cement. Industry leaders are often at the bottom of the industry. They are also enterprises that expand against the trend and take the lead in adding leverage. Recommend Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , and pay attention to Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , China Liansu, etc.
In terms of bulk building materials: the restriction on demand caused by the early epidemic continued, the short-term demand showed a weak improvement, and the inventory pressure also loosened the cement price. However, under the background of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure by policies, with the acceleration of projects after the epidemic is alleviated and the implementation of infrastructure projects contributing to the physical demand, the demand for cement is expected to be significantly improved and released in the third and fourth quarters. The extension of peak staggering in summer is also expected to alleviate the pressure of high inventory. The markets along the Yangtze River and the Pearl River Delta with relatively high core capacity utilization and good industry pattern are expected to take the lead in seeing more than expected cement price elasticity. Industry self-discipline + potential environmental protection and energy consumption constraints shrink the supply capacity of the industry. In the medium term, the capacity utilization rate of the industry is expected to remain high, and the profit center will remain medium to high. The dividend yield of 5 ~ 8% in 2021 makes the current valuation of 7 times P / E ratio have room for repair. We recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. We suggest to pay attention to Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) and others that benefit from the integration of northern market and great business elasticity in the medium and long term.
In terms of decoration building materials: the gradual implementation of infrastructure investment and the acceleration of work after the epidemic are expected to boost demand. The delivery growth rate of material suppliers with partial start-up end or infrastructure business in April is better than that of retail material suppliers with partial completion end. It is expected that the delivery and orders of decoration building materials are expected to improve with the weakening impact of the epidemic and the gradual emergence of policy effects. With the expectation of marginal relaxation of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectation, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair. Referring to the historical experience of the consumer building materials sector and the current competitive situation, in the stage of capital easing + confidence gradually recovering from the bottom of the real estate industry, some companies may take the lead to further increase their share and enter a new expansion cycle with the help of channel leading layout, operating efficiency advantage or financing plus leverage. The inflection point of shipment or order growth can be used as a signal on the right. For the recommendation of the \ etc.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the real estate credit risk was out of control, and the policy concentration exceeded expectations.
