Main views and investment suggestions this week
Shanghai has gradually resumed business and the city, and Beijing continues to strictly control the flow of personnel. Since May, the population of Shanghai’s sealed off area has been decreasing, and the population of the prevention area has gradually increased. Some residents in the prevention area can travel in an orderly manner and go to designated supermarkets, pharmacies and other shopping malls. Offline supermarkets resume business, allowing consumers to recover the “fireworks” of the city in the past. There are 15 key chain convenience store enterprises in the city, with a total of 6208 stores and 2214 stores actually opened, including 673 offline stores and 1541 online stores. According to the changes of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, enterprises will mainly adopt closed-loop or semi closed-loop operation in the first stage before the end of May. In the second stage from early June, we will accelerate the resumption of work and production and continue to expand the resumption of work of enterprises according to the situation of epidemic prevention and control in the city. There is still no downward trend in the number of new cases in a single day in Beijing, and there are sporadic cases in the society. The requirements for home office from May 22 to May 28 in key areas such as Chaoyang, Haidian, Fengtai, Fangshan and Shunyi reduce personnel mobility. Investment suggestion: at present, the epidemic has broken out in many places in China. The first tier cities Shanghai and Beijing have been affected by the spread of the epidemic one after another, and the pressure of epidemic prevention and control has increased again. In the short term, the impact of the epidemic on the overall recovery of the tourism market is still significant. The rebound of the epidemic and prevention and control policies around the country affect consumers’ travel confidence. It is estimated that the number of trips and consumption during the May Day holiday are lower than that in the same period last year. In the medium and long term, the situation of epidemic control and the R & D and landing process of covid-19 specific drugs determine the stabilization and rebound of the industry. We suggest paying attention to 1) the targets of leisure scenic spots focusing on performance restoration, such as China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , and having artificial leisure scenic spots around the first and second tier cities to meet the travel needs of tourists for short distance and border travel; 2) For example, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) continues to play the role of guiding the return of consumption. Affected by the epidemic, the pace of adjustment is fast and the sales volume continues to grow significantly; 3) Targets at the bottom of the cycle, such as Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) are currently at the bottom of the hotel cycle, and their performance is significantly better than that of the previous year. They continue to develop medium and high-end hotels and improve the chain rate.
Market Review
Overall: it closed at 4077.6 points, and the social service industry index rose 1.25%, 0.98 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, ranking 25th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries.
Sub sectors: the rise and fall of sub sectors of social service industry from high to low are: Education (2.23%), scenic spots (2.22%), comprehensive tourism (0.68%), hotel catering (- 0.92%).
Individual stocks: this week Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) led the rise with 14.52% and Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) led the decline with 5.52%.
Industry dynamics
1) Hainan Haiqi Transportation Group Co.Ltd(603069) intends to acquire the duty-free shares held by Hainan tourism investment;
2) inter provincial travel is limited, and the surrounding travel is heated up, and the home stay market is “uneven between cold and heat” in urban and rural areas;
3) the two major airports in Shanghai are about to “return”: the passenger throughput in April was 98% less than that of the same period last year
Announcement of important listed companies (see the text for details)
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic on the tourism industry exceeds the expected risk; Unexpected events or uncontrollable disaster risks..
