In 2022, the output of q1-2 modules is bright, the output margin is upward, and the price of the industrial chain is slightly adjusted and increased: China’s distributed photovoltaic is developing rapidly + overseas demand is strong, the superposition of new silicon materials is gradually released, and the overall margin of 2022q2 is improved. In April 2022, the output of components and rubber film faucets fluctuated slightly, and still increased month on month. In April 2022, the transmission price of components increased smoothly, and the profit continued to improve; From the end of April 2022, the new capacity of silicon 2022q2 will be released at full capacity. In May 2022, the shipment of components will increase month on month, and the production scheduling will continue to increase with the easing of logistics. We expect the total shipment plan of the top four components in 2022q2 to increase by 35-40% month on month, and the total production scheduling in 2022q2 to increase by about 15%; In the second half of the year, the supply of silicon materials increased quarter by quarter, and the price decreased clearly in the medium term. From April to may, 2022, the price of silicon components in the main industrial chain is expected to rise slightly. The price of glass increases by 1-2 yuan / square meter per month due to natural gas soda ash. The price of adhesive film increases due to particles. From March to may, 2022, the price increases to 15-16 yuan / square meter (excluding tax). In May, 2022, the price of components also increases to 1.95 yuan / W. the price increases spread smoothly, which proves that the demand is very good. China’s demand in the first half of the year is still distributed, and the overseas price acceptance is strong, The demand is strong, starting from quarter to quarter.
In Q1 2022, China’s distributed demand and overseas demand supermarket market are expected. The demand certainty in 2022 is strong: according to the national energy administration, China’s installed capacity from January to April 2022 is 16.88gw, an increase of 138.42% at the same time, and the installed capacity continues to exceed the market expectation; Overseas emerging markets are in full bloom. In 2022q1, India, Japan, Poland and other markets scramble for equipment goods, and in 2022q2, Europe, America and other regions start to increase. We expect the export data of components and inverters to continue to improve; Based on the supply capacity and demand exceeding our expectations, we raised the global PV installed capacity to 240250gw in 2022, with a simultaneous increase of 50% +, of which China’s demand is 85-95gw, with a simultaneous increase of about 90%, distributed accounting for 55% +, and overseas demand is 150160gw, with a simultaneous increase of 30% +.
China’s renewable subsidy funds are distributed, and the EU has issued the REpower EU plan to accelerate energy independence; The United States may end its double anti dumping investigation in Southeast Asia in advance under pressure, and the 301 tariff on China may be cancelled: on May 11, 2022, the state announced that it would allocate another 50 billion yuan of renewable energy subsidy funds, and the pressure on the receivables of relevant listed companies will be relieved. Stimulated by the Russian Ukrainian war and the energy crisis, the EU released the repowereu plan to increase the total renewable energy target from 40% to 45% in 2030, and the installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 1236gw in 2030. Germany China Pavilion officially passed the bill to achieve the re100 target in 2035, and the UK formulated the strategy to promote the development of new energy. Under the background of rising energy prices, the EU photovoltaic development will accelerate again. We believe that the European Photovoltaic will continue to increase in 2022 and the medium term. The US Anti circumvention has a significant impact on the US photovoltaic industry. Most members oppose it, and the investigation may be ended ahead of schedule under pressure. The US 301 tariff policy should expire in July and August 2022, and the US government may consider abolishing the 301 tariff on China.
The current is a good opportunity for a layout, with a strong eye on the growth of components, inverters, and the growth of the links between components, inverters, and diamond lines. Alpha is a strong recommendation: components (green energy at the base of the green energy, Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 459 and, Adhesive film and glass links with stable pattern ( Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , focus on Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Xinyi solar energy) and silicon faucet ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) ).
Risk tip: competition intensifies and the policy is less than expected.
