Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week (5 / 16-5 / 20), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.76%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.23%, the SW nonferrous index rose 6.91%, Comex gold rose 1.92% and silver rose 3.01%. This week, the prices of LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin, the main industrial metals, changed by 5.00%, 2.26%, 4.68%, 3.97%, 1.10% and 0.95% month on month respectively; Metal inventory LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by – 6.58%, – 1.36%, 0.03%, 1.70%, – 1.10% and 5.97% month on month respectively.
Industrial metals: with the relief of the epidemic, demand continued to recover, the central bank cut interest rates more than expected to boost market confidence, and industrial metal prices rebounded strongly. Core view: demand recovery + higher than expected interest rate cut, optimistic about the rebound of copper and aluminum prices. In copper, the US dollar index corrected at a high level, and the pressure on financial attributes weakened. The demand side gradually recovered with the improvement of the epidemic, and the downstream operating rate increased. In terms of aluminum, the resumption of production at the supply side is coming to an end. Meanwhile, the downstream operating rate increased by 0.5pct to 59.1% month on month (MOM) last week. The terminal demand continued to pick up, and the social inventory decreased by 38000 tons weekly. Focusing on the focus of the following focus: followingthe Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry.
Energy metals: the high price of lithium ore remains stable, supporting the price of lithium salt; Cobalt demand is light and the price is down; Tight supply and demand of pure nickel supports nickel price. Core view: the positive margin of the epidemic disturbance is weakened, and the demand is expected to pick up quickly. In terms of lithium, the transaction price of snowway’s equity auction exceeded 2 billion yuan, indicating that the scramble for resources has entered a white hot stage. Supply side: lithium salt supply is rising steadily; Demand side: the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and there is a demand for replenishment under the low inventory in the early stage of the positive pole plant. And the high price of lithium ore strongly supports the price of lithium salt. In terms of cobalt, the arrival of intermediate products in Hong Kong is good. In April, the output of cobalt sulfate increased by 10% month on month, and the supply increased. At present, the downstream demand is still dominated by consumption inventory, and the cobalt price is under pressure. In terms of nickel, the nickel salt market remained light, and the supply of pure nickel remained tight. The epidemic led to weak demand. With the gradual easing of the epidemic, the just needed replenishment in the downstream gave nickel price support. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the rising concern about the US recession has led to the weakening of the US dollar, and the gold price has rebounded from the bottom, so it is optimistic about the strategic value of gold. Core view: the US dollar index and US bond yields fall, inflation is difficult to ease, and gold prices are expected to continue to rebound. Although the Fed is still making hawkish speeches, concerns about the US economic downturn are gradually emerging. The US dollar index fell this week, from a high of 104.75 to 102.89 on May 19. Us 10-year Treasury yields also declined. Superimposed on the continued high inflation, the gold price bottomed out and rebounded. It is optimistic that the gold price will continue to rise in the future. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the demand is less than expected; Supply exceeds expected release; Policy uncertainty; Geopolitical risks.
