Main points:
Nonferrous Metals outperformed the market this week, with an increase of 6.91%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02% to close at 314657; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.64% to close at 1145453; The CSI 300 rose 2.23% to close at 407760.
Base metal
The base metal futures and cash market closed up this week. Futures market: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and nickel increased by 2.26%, 5.00%, 4.68%, 3.97%, 0.95% and 1.10% over the same period last week. China’s spot market: copper, aluminum, zinc, lead and nickel increased by 1.18%, 2.54%, 0.63%, 0.54% and 4.52% compared with the same period last week, and tin decreased by 0.47% compared with the same period last week. The overall price of the US dollar pushed the metal index down. Copper: copper prices fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The epidemic situation in China has been controlled and the resumption of work and production has been steadily promoted, effectively boosting market confidence. The epidemic situation in Shanghai has improved and is expected to be fully unsealed in June. The subsequent copper consumption is expected to accelerate the recovery under the promotion of favorable policies. In terms of inventory, as of Friday, SHFE copper inventory was about 544000 tons, down 1.69% from the same period last week. Aluminum: aluminum prices continued to rise this week. The European energy crisis continues to ferment, with strong geopolitical uncertainty and tight foreign supply. China’s electrolytic aluminum supply side basically maintained stable operation, and the release progress of new production capacity slowed down. On the demand side, due to the improvement of the epidemic, some downstream enterprises gradually return to work and production, as well as the policies to support the economy, the market is expected to have a better recovery in later consumption, the market consumption continues to pick up, and the inventory of aluminum is significantly removed, which provides support for the price of aluminum. Aluminum inventories fell by 16.69 million tons as of Friday. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) .
New energy metals
New energy metals differentiated this week. Cobalt: the price of cobalt fell this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 503000 yuan / ton, down 5.81% from last week. The prices of cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide were 98000 yuan / ton and 397500 yuan / ton respectively, maintaining the prices of last week. At present, the cobalt market remains weak in both supply and demand. The severe flood in South Africa has led to the shutdown of ports, and the market’s concern about cobalt supply has increased, supporting the bottom of cobalt price. In China, it is difficult to boost the demand of downstream new energy vehicles and 3C industry. The market transactions are mainly just needed procurement, and the cobalt price is weak and volatile. Lithium: the price of lithium salt remained stable this week. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 460000 yuan / ton, up 1.10% from last week, and the price of lithium hydroxide was stable at 490900 yuan / ton. On the supply side, China’s Salt Lake production has gradually resumed, the lithium salt production capacity is close to full production, and the supply tension has eased. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed work and production, and their enthusiasm for replenishing inventory has rebounded, but the overall wait-and-see attitude is strong; However, the new energy industry is still in the period of development. With the mitigation of the epidemic and the gradual resumption of work and production of enterprises, the demand for lithium is expected to pick up, and attention is paid to the downstream replenishment demand. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , targets of cobalt industry integration layout; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of lithium in Salt Lake: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Related objects of lepidolite: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) ; Related subject matter of spodumene: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Precious metals
Precious metal prices stabilized and rebounded this week. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was US $1845.1/oz, up 1.92% from last week; Spot gold in London was $1834.2 per ounce, up 1.25% from last week. Silver: Comex silver price was US $21.77/oz, up 3.03% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $22.03/ounce, up 5.71%. During the week, the dollar index weakened and gold and silver prices rose slightly. Recently, the hawkish voice of the Federal Reserve has continued, and the high inflation has pushed up the expectation of raising interest rates. However, the United States has increased its military assistance to Ukraine, intensified geopolitical tensions, superimposed on the continuous high global inflation, and the gold price has maintained a volatile operation. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) .
Risk tips
The demand is less than expected; The geopolitical war between Russia and Ukraine continued to ferment; The risk of Fed policy changes.
