This week (May 16, 2022-may 20, 2022), the building materials sector (SW) rose 2.78%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02%, and the excess return was 0.76%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was -293 million yuan. Among them, cement (SW) rose 0.59%, glass manufacturing (SW) rose 5.08%, glass fiber manufacturing (SW) rose 3.41% and decoration building materials (SW) rose 3.41%.
[weekly data summary and opinions]
In April, the real estate data further declined, the data of infrastructure investment in April was insufficient, and the weakness of downstream demand deepened. At present, building materials focus on three major directions: 1) policy catalysis: the rapid decline of real estate needs policy support, and steady growth also needs continuous force. Continuous easing of policies is a high probability event, which has a catalytic effect on the market of building materials, but it is easy to fluctuate; 2) Demand: due to the inertia of the decline of real estate, the current demand for building materials mainly depends on the steady growth of infrastructure. If the investment in infrastructure continues to increase, there is a slight repair expectation in the cement sector; 3) Price of raw materials: the leaders of consumer building materials have strong resilience at the income side and can grow against the trend. However, affected by the rising price of raw materials, the pressure on the cost side is unprecedented and the profit margin has a large year-on-year decline. If the price of bulk raw materials in the upstream is adjusted, the profit recovery elasticity of consumer building materials is large. Focus on the leaders greatly affected by the price of raw materials, such as Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) . 4) Strong market segments: the legislation on building vibration reduction and isolation has brought explosive expansion of the market, focusing on Quakesafe Technologies Co.Ltd(300767) .
1. Recent market changes of cement: this week, the national cement market price continued to decline month on month, with a decrease of 1.7%. The price drop areas are still concentrated in North China, East China, Central South and southwest, with a range of 20-40 yuan / ton; The price rise areas are mainly Jiangxi and Hunan, with a range of 30-50 yuan / ton. In mid May, with the decrease of heavy rainfall, the demand of China's cement market improved slightly, and the shipment rate of enterprises increased by 5% month on month. As the overall shipment level remained at the level of 60-70%, the inventory continued to operate at a high level, and the cement price continued to decline.
2. Recent market changes of glass: the average price of float glass in China this week was 198911 yuan / ton, a decrease of 49.54 yuan / ton or 2.43% compared with the average price last week (203825 yuan / ton). It is mainly due to the severe contradiction between supply and demand, the continuous accumulation of float factory inventory and the relatively general downstream demand. At the same time, due to the impact of the glass price reduction in North China in early May, East China, central China and other places fell accordingly. The original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces in China was 64.52 million boxes, with a week-on-week increase of + 1.21 million boxes and a year-on-year increase of + 51.8 million boxes. Soda ash prices are still high, some float enterprises are facing losses, and their tolerance to high inventory has decreased slightly. Pay attention to the trend of cold repair.
3. Recent market changes of glass fiber: this week, the mainstream of 2400tex wound direct yarn was 57006000 yuan / ton, which was 0.94% lower than that of last week and 1.5% lower than that of last week. The market price of electronic yarn has stabilized after rising. At present, the downstream is still mainly replenished on demand, and the mainstream transactions range from 87009100 yuan / ton, which has stabilized month on month. By the end of April, the inventory of glass fiber enterprises was 337000 tons, an increase of 46000 tons compared with March, an increase of 163000 tons year-on-year, and the inventory pressure increased.
4. Recent market changes of consumer building materials: among the upstream raw materials of consumer building materials, the prices of PVC and lotion fell this week, benefiting pipe and coating enterprises; Aluminum price rebounded slightly this week, but it is in a downward trend as a whole. Continue to pay attention to the benefits of Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) and Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) costs; The prices of natural gas and asphalt remain high, and the cost pressure of tiles, waterproof and other sectors is large.
Risk tip: the policy easing is less than expected, and the price of raw materials continues to rise rapidly.
