Important changes in the industry this week
1. Price: the prices of electrolytic cobalt, cobalt sulfate, cobalt trioxide, ternary materials, 6F (domestic) and petroleum coke decreased this week, the prices of phosphate rock, industrial phosphoric acid, NMP and aluminum increased, and the prices of other links were relatively stable; 2. Terminal: centralized release / pre-sale of new vehicles in the vehicle factory on May 20.
This week's core view
Production continued to recover: the production side recovered significantly in May compared with April, and the wholesale volume of passenger cars in the second week increased by + 47% compared with April. In the second week of May, the wholesale of passenger car market reached 34000 vehicles per day, with a year-on-year increase of - 29%, an increase of 47% compared with the second week of April; From May 1 to 15, the wholesale volume was 458000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 24% and a month-on-month increase of + 29%. In the second week, the average daily retail sales was 33000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 22%, gradually warming up and improving, compared with the second week of April + 26%; From January to 15, the total retail volume was 484000, with a year-on-year increase of - 21% and a month on month increase of + 27%. With the return to normal in some areas, the retail sales of passenger car market has improved to a certain extent. In terms of new energy vehicles, the insurance volume in the second week of May was 6.57w (YoY + 79% / + 21.4%). Considering that Tesla exported 9K last week, the new energy vehicle last week was 7.5W (same / month on month + 104% / + 38%). From No. 1 to No. 15, the total insurance coverage is 12.5W (t export 9K is not included). It is expected that the insurance coverage will be 32W this month, with a batch sale of 35W +, with a month-on-month ratio of + 76% / + 25%.
Intensive release and listing of new models: it was 5.20, and the new cars of the whole vehicle factory were centrally released / pre sold. The seal, Great Wall ballet cat and avita 11 that took the CTB technology for the first time Byd Company Limited(002594) opened the prelude to the supply side of the electric vehicle market. After the follow-up Dawan District auto show and Beijing auto show, it is expected that Q3 will usher in a large-scale trend of new cars.
Automobile consumption is still under pressure, and the stimulus policy can be expected. 1) Social finance data in April showed that the financing needs of enterprises and residents were shrinking rapidly. 2) According to the statistics of China Automobile Circulation Association, more than 20% of auto dealers in China have closed their stores recently. 3) At present, retail sales fell by 11.9% from January to April. To ensure zero retail growth in 2022, the average monthly retail sales from May to December need to increase by 100000 vehicles year-on-year. 4) Some cities began to issue large car purchase subsidies to promote consumption, such as Guangdong (8000 yuan subsidy for new energy vehicles), Shenyang (20005000 yuan / vehicle, with a total amount of 100 million yuan), etc. Considering the contribution value of automobile and its related industries to GDP and the scale of employees, it is expected that a wider range of stimulus policies can be expected, and the means of stimulus may not be limited to: issuing car purchase subsidies, extending or gradient withdrawal of new energy vehicle purchase tax relief, automobile going to the countryside, etc.
Fundamentals, policies and valuation bottom, happy to watch the follow-up market. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the battery, complete vehicle and auto parts sector has experienced a large decline. The valuation of the sector is near the bottom of the last two years. The PE valuation of the head company of battery, complete vehicle and auto parts has entered 30-40 times, 10-30 times and 20-30 times in 22 years. At present, the industry is at the bottom of fundamentals, policies and valuation. The market initially reflects the repair of the supply side (the resumption of work and production of the industrial chain in the Yangtze River Delta). It is expected that the demand repair and policy stimulus expectations will be gradually deduced in the future. In terms of investment ideas, it is suggested to pay attention to: Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) industrial chain, companies with high income from new energy vehicles and high income below A0 vehicles.
Important industry events this week
1. Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) comments; 2. 520 new car reviews.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
