Market review: last week, SW auto sector rose 4.4%. The CSI 300 rose 2.2%.
From the perspective of valuation, as of the closing on May 20, the PE (TTM) of the automotive industry was 29 times, up 4.9% from last week.
Historical resumption of automobile policy: Although the policy has short-term stimulation on sales, it will have overdraft effect in the follow-up and increase the fluctuation of production and sales. We believe that stabilizing residents' income expectation is of great significance to stabilizing automobile consumption in a longer cycle dimension.
Investment suggestion: at present, the overall situation of the resumption of work and production of Shanghai automobile industry chain is stable and good. The capacity utilization rate of the latest Lingang New energy automobile industry has increased to about 46%, of which SAIC Lingang factory and Tesla have reached 50% / 45% respectively. At the same time, the warm wind of industrial policies is blowing frequently, and the short-term demand side is expected to get some boost in the future. We believe that the worst moment of the current industry has passed. The resumption of work and production of the industrial chain promotes the steady improvement of the supply side, and the subsequent demand recovery needs the joint efforts and patient care of all parties. On the whole, the recovery of the industry is not smooth, but the trend is good. We are optimistic about the independent brand passenger cars, new energy vehicles and smart vehicles. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities under the expectation of the recovery of the performance of the parts sector in the third and fourth quarters.
Passenger cars: the advantages of independent brands were expanded. In April, the retail share of independent brands of Chinese passenger cars increased by 9.6pp to 46.4% year-on-year. The demand for passenger cars continued to pick up in May. From May 9 to May 15, the retail / wholesale of passenger cars were 230000 / 236000 respectively, an increase of 3% / 22% month on week and 26% / 47% over the same period last month. With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China and the continuous promotion of resumption of work and production, production and sales are expected to continue to recover, and the logic of replenishment of stock and delayed delivery of orders in the second half of the year will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ), Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ( Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ).
New energy vehicles: affected by the epidemic, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles decreased by 36.5% month on month in April. With the orderly resumption of work and production under the current epidemic situation, the sales volume is expected to rise rapidly in May. The long-term trend of vehicle electrification is irreversible. We expect that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of this year will be 5.1 million (+ 45% YoY), and the global market will continue to grow rapidly under the leadership of China, the United States and Europe. We are optimistic about: 1) leading enterprise of new energy vehicle and power battery Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) ); 2) International car companies such as Tesla, Volkswagen and other international car companies like Tesla, Volkswagen and other international car companies, as well as companies that have entered international car companies such as Tesla and other international car companies like Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) 01689 ( Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ( Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ).
Smart cars: various forces will accelerate the trend of intelligent cars. In the future, China's smart electric car market will present a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in the supply of smart cars in China, the industrial development will accelerate. We are optimistic about: 1) Huawei automotive industry chain opportunities, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ); 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors continues to increase, and the penetration rate of smart lights, smart cockpit and air suspension continues to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ( Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) ( Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) ).
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; Risk of rising raw material prices; The risk that the resumption of work and production is less than expected; The risk that the electric transformation of vehicle enterprises is less than expected; The promotion of intelligent Internet connected vehicles is less than expected.
