Overview of lithium mines in Western Australia: the sales volume of 22q1 fell, but the price of lithium concentrate rose sharply. 1) Production and marketing of 22q1: technological transformation, labor shortage and epidemic situation affect production. About 500000 tons of lithium concentrate are produced in mines in Western Australia in 22q1, which is basically the same month on month; The sales of lithium concentrate is about 480000 tons (assuming that the production and sales rate of greenbushes is 100%), with a month on month decrease of about 13.6%, which is mainly affected by the delayed shipment of PLS lithium concentrate. 2) 22q1 price: the selling price of lithium concentrate increased significantly month on month, of which the average price of mtmarion spodumene was 1952 US dollars / dry ton, up 69% month on month, the average sales price of Pilbara was 2650 US dollars / ton, up 49% month on month, and the average sales price of greenbushes was 1770 US dollars / ton, up 199% month on month. 3) Output outlook for 2022: under the influence of the epidemic, the Western Australian border is still closed for most of the time, coupled with the shortage of labor force, the output is basically flat month on month. However, we expect that with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in the second half of the year, as well as the positive impact of climbing to full production in greenbushes phase II, the operation of tailings reprocessing plant, the expansion of 22h2 production in Marion mine, the resumption of 22h2 production in ngungaju plant and wodgina’s resumption of 22q2, the output of lithium concentrate in Western Australia will increase by more than 700000 tons in 2022, becoming one of the main sources of global lithium resource supply increment. 4) Price guidance: the long-term cooperative price of 22q2 lithium concentrate rose, and the long-term cooperative price guidance of mtcatlin is USD 5000 / ton CIF. Meanwhile, Pilbara’s BMX lithium concentrate auction platform auctioned a high price of USD 6250 / ton (sc6.0). Pilbara expects the price of lithium concentrate to rise further in the second quarter. In the future, with the normalization of auction, the price of lithium concentrate is expected to rise further in 2022.
Summary of salt lakes in South America: the sales prices of 22q1 have increased significantly, and the output fluctuates, but the performance has increased significantly. Benefiting from the continuous adjustment of sales contract structure, the annual profit expectation was further raised. 1) Production, sales and performance: the performance has increased significantly due to the sharp increase in the price of lithium products, but the production and sales have differentiated, the production and sales of Yabao and sqm have increased, and the production and sales of olaroz under Livent and allkem have decreased slightly. Among them, the olaroz project under sqm and allkem has a good performance in 22q1, and the profit in a single quarter exceeds that in 2021. 2) Sales price: the selling price of 22q1 Salt Lake in South America has increased significantly, of which the selling price of 22q1 Yabao lithium products has increased by 66% year-on-year, and the selling price of sqm lithium salt has increased sharply to USD 38000 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 567% and a month on month increase of 160%; The average sales price of Q1 of olaroz project was 27000 US dollars / ton, up 118% month on month. 3) Sales Contract: the proportion of long and short orders has been significantly adjusted, and the sales price will be significantly increased in 2022. Since 22q1, all enterprises have adjusted the structure of sales contracts, reduced the proportion of long orders with fixed prices, significantly increased the proportion of spot pricing contracts, and shortened the pricing cycle, making the average selling price closer to the market price. Therefore, all companies have significantly increased the annual lithium salt sales price guidelines. 4) Performance guidelines: all companies have significantly raised the performance guidelines for 2022, held a more optimistic attitude towards lithium price, and are full of confidence in the sustainability of this round of lithium price.
Investment suggestion: it is expected that the tight supply of global lithium resources will continue for a long time in the future. High lithium prices will be the norm of the industry in the future. Independent and controllable resources + continuous growth of production capacity will benefit for a long time. We suggest to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Risk tips: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, the price of lithium falls sharply, global macroeconomic risks, etc.
