The household sector is under short-term pressure affected by the epidemic, and it is optimistic that the home decoration just needs to be released continuously after the epidemic. The performance of 22q1 household sector is affected by the epidemic and under short-term pressure. With reference to the situation of 20 years, it is expected to recover quarterly with the gradual control of the epidemic. 22q1 Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) revenue was + 20.05%, + 25.60% respectively year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 15.1%, + 3.88% respectively year-on-year. Under the influence of the epidemic, the leading business remained stable, and the revenue of mattress leader Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) also recorded double-digit growth in the first quarter.
It is expected that the opening of stores and the income of household decoration will be delayed in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic situation. We believe that the sudden epidemic has affected the rhythm of revenue recognition of the company to a certain extent, and some orders or logistics obstacles can not confirm revenue in time; On the other hand, the impact of the epidemic has a short-term impact on the sales of offline stores and the speed of new stores. Some signed stores or delayed the decoration / opening time due to the impact of the epidemic. The increment of stores and the progress of reloading are also expected to accelerate the release after the epidemic. After the superposition of logistics improvement, the orders will gradually confirm the revenue, and the revenue side is expected to be repaired.
Advances received and contractual liabilities are forward-looking indicators of retail performance, or can provide some reference for subsequent retail revenue recognition. 22q1 Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) advance receipts and total contract liabilities were + 24.31%, + 39.30%, + 55.29% and + 21.93% respectively year on year. Compared with the early outbreak of the epidemic in 20 years, the head companies have arranged new retail, paid more attention to the expansion of multiple channels, and adopted more online marketing methods to accumulate traffic offline, which may lay the foundation for converting into order revenue in the future. In the medium and long term, there is still much room for improvement in category penetration and industry concentration. In 2017, the penetration rate of customized cabinets was about 60%, and that of wardrobe was about 30%. According to the statistics of CSIL, the mattress penetration rate in developed countries reaches 85%, while that in China is only 60%. For functional sofas, in terms of volume, the sales penetration rate of functional sofas in China in 2019 was about 4.4%, in terms of sales, the penetration rate of functional sofas in China was about 12%, while the penetration rate of functional sofas in the United States in 2019 was 41.5%. According to our calculation, the market share of oupai kitchen cabinet and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wardrobe in the retail market will be 6% and 5% respectively in 2020, and the market share of Zhibang and oupai in the engineering cabinet market will be 4% and 6% respectively in 2020; In 2020, the market share of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , mousse domestic mattress was 4% and 7% respectively. There is still much room for the improvement of leading market share.
The leading resources are fully invested, the ability of Omni channel layout, fine management and dealer empowerment is far better than that of peers, and the channel concentration continues to improve. Channel sinking and blank market layout are still going on. We believe that under the background of the decline of natural passenger flow of household property, leading enterprises are expected to accelerate the increase of market share by increasing the number of stores, expanding business area, continuously restoring the ability of dealers and increasing marketing investment. In terms of product development, on the one hand, consumers’ awareness of the brand continues to improve, with more investment in head brand design and R & D, strong intelligent manufacturing ability and smoother category development. On the other hand, the industry is moving from single product competition to multi category and integrated competition, and the advantages of supply chain and large-scale centralized procurement of leading enterprises are gradually highlighted. Head enterprises have successively launched packages including customization, software, home appliances and other diversified categories. The strong combination of home and home appliance brands not only meets the consumer demand for brands under the trend of consumption upgrading, but also reflects the advantages of large-scale centralized purchase of head enterprises and the ability to integrate the supply chain.
With the gradual relaxation of real estate regulation policies and the continuous increase of regulation efforts, the real estate is expected to be repaired upward, and the real estate chain may continue to benefit. At present, the valuation of the home sector is at the bottom of history. We believe that the reasonable PE range of the home subject is 20-30x, and the valuation may have room for recovery. Firmly optimistic about the “domestic sales + 2C” based household leader, occupy the terminal traffic entrance through the encrypted retail network, and use the refined management ability and digital tools to help gradually improve the channel efficiency and continue to cultivate the retail channel; With excellent manufacturing capacity and supply chain advantages, constantly enrich the product matrix and promote the improvement of customer unit price through systematic sales. Thanks to the continuous consolidation of channel side and product side advantages, the share of leading enterprises is expected to continue to increase. Software sector recommendation [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ].
Risk tips: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations, the delivery of real estate was less than expected, the price fluctuation risk of raw materials, the intensification of industry competition, etc.
