Establish the analysis framework of bank debt cost. In recent years, the net interest margin of listed banks is in the range of 1.9% - 2.7%, and the cost ratio of interest bearing liabilities is in the range of 1.4% - 2.5%. The cost of liabilities is very important to the net interest margin. Based on the data of 58 A & H-share listed banks, this report attempts to establish a liability side analysis framework.
The liability side focuses on interest bearing liabilities, focusing on deposits and active liabilities. Interest bearing liabilities can be divided into four categories: deposits, inter-bank liabilities, bonds payable and borrowings from the central bank, accounting for 75%, 14%, 9% and 2% respectively in 2021. The proportion of deposits is relatively high, but the price is "rigid" and has little fluctuation; Although the proportion of active liabilities (inter-bank transactions + bonds payable) is not high, the interest rate fluctuates greatly. These two are the main influencing factors of debt cost.
It can forecast 4 categories of interest bearing liabilities and 5 categories of deposits by segment. In 2022, the debt side structure is relatively stable within one year, the central bank has guided banks to reduce the time deposit interest rate by 10bp, and the capital market interest rate has declined since the beginning of the year. Based on this, we assume that the structure remains unchanged and the interest payment rate of deposits and active liabilities decreases. (Note: it is assumed that it is only based on the current existing policies. If there is an incremental policy or trend in the future, the conclusion needs to be adjusted accordingly)
It is predicted that the interest bearing liabilities and deposit interest payment rate in 22 years will be - 11bp and - 2bp year-on-year. According to the calculation, the weighted average interest bearing debt cost ratio of listed banks may decrease by 11bp to 1.89% year-on-year; Among them, the deposit interest payment rate decreased 2bp to 1.83% year-on-year. Looking back on 2020, the cost rate of interest bearing liabilities decreased by 19bp and the interest payment rate of deposits decreased by 9bp; If only the current policies and trends are considered, the cost reduction range of the liability side in 2022 may be weaker than that in 2020.
Investment suggestion: cost reduction is like that in 2020, and the intensity needs to be increased. The environment this year is similar to that in 2020. The epidemic fermentation and local sealing control are to underpin the economy, reduce LPR on the asset side and reduce costs on the liability side. In contrast, the current cost reduction efforts on the liability side are still insufficient. In the future, we may expect to further guide the decline of deposit prices or the continued decline of interbank market interest rates. Effective cost reduction measures may make the net interest margin more stable and make reasonable profit sharing constitute a "win-win" situation for the economy and banks, and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the effect of steady growth is poor; Deterioration of asset quality; Wide credit is less than expected; The hypothetical conditions and calculation methods deviate from the reality.
