Production profile of national power industry from January to April 2022
In April, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 636.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and the CAGR in the same period from 2019 to 2022 was 4.8%; The power generation capacity of power plants above the national standard was 609.6 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, and the three-year CAGR was 3.8%; The average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 276 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 23 hours; The newly installed capacity was 10.59 million kilowatts, 4.38 million kilowatts more than the same period last year.
From January to April, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 2.68 trillion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and the CAGR in the same period from 2019 to 2022 was 6.3%; The power generation capacity of power plants above the national standard was 2.60 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and the three-year CAGR was 5.5%; The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1176 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 41 hours or 3.2%. By the end of April, the installed capacity of power plants above designated size was 2.248 billion kw, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and the three-year CAGR was 7.2%; From January to April, the newly installed capacity was 42.33 million KW, 12.62 million KW more than the same period last year, an increase of 42.4%; The total investment in power supply and power grid projects of major power enterprises was 206.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, and the three-year CAGR was 22.9%.
Key indicators
Electricity consumption: the impact of the epidemic and the sluggish demand; Shanghai reappears Hubei’s dilemma, and Jiangsu is most affected.
Power generation: the rainstorm in the South increased the output of hydropower in the southwest, and the thermal power continued to decline.
Utilization hours: water, wind and light continued to rise in March, and fire and nuclear continued to reduce load.
New installed capacity: wind power and light power increased by 5.4gw in a single month, with an increase of 2.3gw year-on-year.
Project investment: the monthly investment of wind and light exceeds 10 billion.
Investment advice
Although the temperature was on the high side, affected by factors such as epidemic control, the added value of industries above Designated Size in China decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in April, including the manufacturing industry decreased by 4.6%, and the demand for electricity continued to be sluggish.
In April, two regional rainstorms in the South promoted the significant increase of hydropower output in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places, and it is expected to continue the prosperous situation of supply and demand in May; With the rapid development of hydropower, the superimposed demand continues to weaken, and the output of thermal power further declines. The market transaction price in Guangdong and other places has begun to reflect the changes of supply and demand. The pressure on the downstream user side is expected to be relieved, and the subsequent transmission effect to the upstream price is also worth looking forward to. The hydropower sector recommends China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , and carefully recommends Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) ; Recommended for thermal power sector Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , recommended by nuclear power sector, and Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) , recommended with caution; China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , recommended by scenery operation, and Longyuan Power is recommended with caution.
Risk tips
Utilization hours decline: macroeconomic operation will affect utilization hours;
Fluctuation of on grid price: electricity market-oriented transaction may cause fluctuation of on grid price;
Rising coal prices: for thermal power enterprises dominated by coal engines, rising fuel costs will reduce profits;
Precipitation reduction: the operating performance of hydropower mainly depends on the incoming water and consumption;
The promotion of the policy is not as expected: the regulation of electricity price by the policy always exists, and the state of power supply and demand may affect the construction of new nuclear power units.
