Main points:
The enthusiasm for making up the hurdles continued to rise, and the average weight of pigs in some main production areas increased.
① pig prices rose by 2.1% on a weekly basis. On Saturday, the national pig price was 15.72 yuan / kg, up 2.1% on a weekly basis. This week, the loss of self bred pigs was 175.24 yuan / head, and the profit of outsourcing piglet breeding was 31.06 yuan / head. ② The prices of piglets and binary sows increased by 3% and 2% respectively on a weekly basis. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (5.13-5.19): the proportion of pigs within 90kg in China accounted for 5.74%, and the week on week ratio increased by 0.06 percentage points, which was at the low level since the non plague; This week, the market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm was 680 yuan / head, with a sharp increase of 2.9% on a weekly basis, 67% since April, and 342% higher than 154 yuan / head at the bottom; The price of 50 kg two yuan sows is 1796 yuan / head, up 2% on a weekly basis, up 10.7% since April, up 45% from the bottom of 1238 yuan / head. The recent sharp rise in piglet prices reflects a significant increase in the enthusiasm of free range farmers to make up fences, and the moderate rise in the price of binary sows reflects the increase in the mood of making up fences in large-scale farms. As the enthusiasm of making up fences is directly related to pig prices, it needs to be closely tracked.
③ the average weight of pigs sold in some main production areas has increased, and pig breeding stocks can change time and space. The number of fertile sows in China decreased from 45.64 million at the end of June last year to 41.85 million at the end of March this year, a cumulative decrease of 8.3%; According to the latest data from the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, as of the end of April, the number of fertile sows in China was 41.773 million, down 0.2% month on month. We believe that in the short term, the rise of pig prices is related to seasonal factors and the general optimism of the industry about pig prices in the later stage. Farmers press the fence and the reproduction of secondary fattening, and the covid-19 epidemic is superimposed, resulting in passive fence pressing. The average weight (kg) of lean white striped pigs in some main production areas increased significantly. On May 13, Heilongjiang 88.63, Jilin 90.65, Liaoning 88.58, Hunan 105.93, Shandong 86.23 and Guangdong 100.8; Compared with April 1, it increased by 3.3% in Heilongjiang, 6.6% in Jilin, 7.9% in Liaoning, 2.7% in Hunan, 5.4% in Shandong and 8.7% in Guangdong; Compared with the peak value in 2021, Heilongjiang – 4.5%, Jilin – 2.8%, Liaoning – 4.2%, Hunan – 8.3%, Shandong – 2.4% and Guangdong – 7.4%. From the perspective of the middle line, the import volume of pork and pig offal from January to April 2022 is 920000 tons. The import of frozen meat inventory, the improvement of breeding pig efficiency and the pressing of live pigs will affect the height of pig prices in the second half of the year; We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience the bottom grinding stage this year. The trend of pig price in the second half of the year may be lower than the market expectation. The longer the bottom grinding time of pig price than expected will support the clearance of production capacity and the height of pig price in a new cycle. Pig breeding stocks can change time and space. As we measure the market value of each pig’head by the expected roll of the year in 2022, we’re using the expected roll of the year in 2022 to measure the market value of the pig heads of each pig. The Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 8 , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) .
In April, the renewal of white feather ancestors increased by 16.5% year-on-year, and the price of yellow feather chicken increased mainly on a weekly basis.
① in April, the renewal of Baiyu ancestors increased by 16.5% year-on-year. On Friday, the price of white feather chicken products was 10230 yuan / ton, down 0.7% on a weekly basis. China Poultry Industry Association released the April report: from January to April, the national white feather ancestral generation renewal volume was 428800 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, of which the ancestral generation renewal volume in April was 131900 sets, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; From January to April, the sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 174107 million sets, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. In April, the sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 3.8996 million sets, a year-on-year decrease of 28.5%. We maintain the judgment that the price of white feather broiler will rise moderately in 2022. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose mainly on a weekly basis. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of May 20, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast big chicken was 6.42 yuan / kg, up 4.2% on a weekly basis and 12.8% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of medium speed chicken was 7.14 yuan / kg, up 3.3% on a weekly basis and 4.4% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of native chicken was 8.3 yuan / kg, up 2.5% on a weekly basis and 5.5% on a year-on-year basis; Black bone chicken was 7.27 yuan / kg, down 0.6% month on week and up 3.9% year-on-year.
In April, the prosperity of feed remained low, and the average price of mixture increased by more than 7% year-on-year.
In April 2022, the total output of industrial feed in China was 22.49 million tons, a month on month decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. In terms of varieties, the output of pig feed was 9.63 million tons, a month on month decrease of 4.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%; The output of egg and poultry feed was 2.52 million tons, down 4.0% month on month and 9.4% year on year; The output of meat and poultry feed was 7.05 million tons, a month on month decrease of 3.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%; The output of aquatic feed was 1.9 million tons, with a month on month increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 25.2%; The output of ruminant feed was 1.15 million tons, a month on month decrease of 7.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. From January to April, the feed output of pigs, egg birds and meat birds decreased by 3.2%, 2.9% and 1.5% respectively year-on-year; The feed output of aquatic products and ruminants increased by 32.7% and 4.7% respectively year-on-year.
In April 2022, the average price of compound feed for feed enterprises was 3.69 yuan / kg for fattening pigs, 3.4 yuan / kg for laying hens, 3.83 yuan / kg for broilers and 5.22 yuan / kg for adult carp; The month on month changes were 0.1% for fat pigs, 0.1% for laying hens, 0.6% for broilers and 0.3% for adult carp; The year-on-year changes were 7.2% for fat pigs, 9.0% for laying hens, 10.3% for broilers and 11.7% for adult carp. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year changes in the average price of compound feed of feed enterprises were 5.0% for fat pigs, 6.5% for laying hens, 7.5% for broilers and 9.2% for adult carp.
The commercialization of genetically modified organisms has been steadily promoted, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price is expected to remain high.
① the commercialization of genetically modified maize is advancing steadily, and it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the leader of seed industry. Up to now, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Syngenta have obtained the safety certificate of corn products. Since Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) obtained the safety certificate earlier than Syngenta, they are in the first mover advantage in terms of the number and scale of partners.
Syngenta is a global agricultural technology giant and the national team of China’s seed industry. Its plant protection business ranks first in the world and its seed business ranks third in the world. It has obtained three corn product safety certificates for the first time, and is expected to gradually reflect its late development advantage in the next few years Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) has high-quality maize germplasm resources, and the quality of germplasm resources is very important to the quality of transgenic varieties, which is expected to fully benefit from the commercialization of transgenic maize. We expect that Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Syngenta will stand out in the commercialization process of China’s genetically modified seed industry. We suggest to continue to pay attention to the leaders of the seed industry. ② Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. USDA’s may report predicts that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 22 / 23 is 25.8%, the same as that in 21 / 22, at the bottom since 16 / 17; According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of China’s Ministry of agriculture and rural areas in May, the national corn balance in 22 / 23 may fall to 40000 tons, which is 4.79 million tons lower than that in 21 / 22, and the corn price is expected to remain high. ③ Wheat prices may remain relatively high in 2022. USDA may report predicts that the global wheat stock consumption ratio in 22 / 23 is 33.9%, down 1.5 percentage points from 21 / 22, the lowest level since 15 / 16; In the year of 21 / 22, the global (excluding China) wheat stock consumption ratio was 19.5%, which was at the low level since 2008 / 09. As the wheat exports of Russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of the world, the international price trend of wheat needs to continue to pay attention to the Russian Ukrainian war. ④ Soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. USDA may report predicts that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 22 / 23 is 26.4%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over 21 / 22, and the global soybean meal stock consumption ratio in 22 / 23 is 5.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over 21 / 22, which is at the low level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of China’s Ministry of agriculture and rural areas in May: the national soybean balance in 22 / 23 was 1.66 million tons, an increase of 1.68 million tons compared with 21 / 22. We expect soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022.
Risk tips
The epidemic is out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
