Price: steel prices fell this week. This week, the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 4820 yuan / ton, down from – 1.6% last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4870 yuan / ton, up from + 0.4% last week. The price of raw materials was divided this week, and the price of port iron ore this week increased compared with last week; Coke prices fell compared with last week; The price of scrap steel is flat compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, we calculate that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 64 yuan / ton, + 3 yuan / ton and – 29 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel fell this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of deformed steel bars fell on a weekly basis, the warehouses of the five major steel plants fell on a weekly basis, and the social warehouses fell on a weekly basis. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.93 million tons, down 160800 tons on a week-on-week basis, including 160000 tons of construction steel, 0800 tons of sector, and 150100 tons to 2951300 tons of rebar. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased by 290900 tons to 15220700 tons on a weekly basis, the total inventory of steel mills decreased by 6.9916 million tons and 14300 tons on a weekly basis, of which the rebar social warehouse decreased by 177700 tons and the factory warehouse increased by 22900 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.1061 million tons, with a decrease of 166400 tons on a week-on-week basis. The daily average transaction volume of construction steel this week is 156500 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.37%.
Investment suggestion: on Friday, the central bank cut more than five-year lpr15bp than expected, increased the policy stimulus on the real estate side, boosted the confidence of steel consumption, superimposed the easing of the epidemic in Shanghai, gradually promoted the resumption of work and production, and the marginal improvement of steel demand is expected to be strong. In the short term, the demand for steel is still weak. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.1061 million tons, down 166400 tons on a week-on-week basis. In terms of inventory, the social warehouse and factory warehouse of large steel varieties fell slightly on Friday. On the whole, the current steel fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, but the policy side stimulus is gradually increased, boosting the steel consumption expectation, and the steel price is expected to stabilize gradually. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Subject matter of pipes: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) ; 6) High dividend targets: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
