In April, the news agency announced that terminal consumption was under pressure and the retail environment in Shanghai was depressed. According to the data disclosed by the National Bureau of statistics, due to the repeated epidemic in many places since April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in a single month decreased by 11.1% year-on-year (0.2% year-on-year from January to April). Due to the strong selectivity of clothing and jewelry, the clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textile / gold, silver and jewelry social zero fell more sharply than the overall social zero, with a year-on-year decline of – 22.8% / – 26.7% in April alone (- 6.0% / + 0.2% year-on-year from January to April). The epidemic control restricted logistics and transportation. From January to April, the online retail sales of physical goods in China increased by 5.2%, including food and use goods increased by 12.9% and 6.3% respectively, and clothing decreased by 1.7%. At the same time, according to the disclosure of Shanghai Municipal Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in April alone decreased by 48.3% year-on-year (14.2% year-on-year from January to April), and the retail sales of clothing goods decreased by 38.4% year-on-year (15.4% year-on-year from January to April). According to our tracking, as of mid May, with this round of epidemic being gradually controlled and the pace of resumption of work and production in Shanghai advancing steadily, we judge that the social terminal consumption is expected to recover, the clothing and jewelry categories are flexible, and the recovery speed may be better than that of the whole society.
Manufacturers: manufacturers with enhanced fundamental certainty are recommended in the short term. 1) The epidemic situation in dongzhuoya is becoming more and more stable, and local policies are liberalized. We judge that the overseas production capacity of manufacturers is stable. 2) Since March, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (direct exchange rate) has fluctuated upward, and export-oriented manufacturing companies will benefit. 3) At the same time, the heat of subdivided outdoor tracks continues, which is expected to drive the rapid growth of upstream outdoor manufacturing companies. To sum up, [ Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Jiazhou international] are recommended, corresponding to 27 / 26 / 28 times of PE in 2022.
Brands: brands fluctuate under the influence of the epidemic. If the epidemic recovers, the terminal growth is flexible, and they are optimistic about sports shoes and clothing tracks in the medium and long term. Recently, Shanghai and other places have gradually promoted the resumption of business and market, and shopping malls and department stores are expected to gradually and orderly resume business. We believe that if the pet stream gradually returns to normal, clothing brands are expected to usher in a certain degree of recovery. Among them, we are optimistic about the growth of sports track + the medium and long-term investment opportunities that China’s leading market share is expected to increase. Core recommendations [Li Ning, Anta sports, Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Tebu international], corresponding to 28 / 24 / 18 / 20 times of PE in 22 years respectively.
Gold jewelry: Festival demand + investment hedging demand increased, driving the sales of Huangli jewelry. Gufali and other products are sought after by the market, and the leading channel continues to sink. We suggest paying attention to [Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) ], corresponding to 19 / 12 times of PE in 2022. In April, the news agency announced that terminal consumption was under pressure and the retail environment in Shanghai was depressed. According to the data disclosed by the National Bureau of statistics, due to the repeated epidemic in many places since April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in a single month decreased by 11.1% year-on-year (0.2% year-on-year from January to April). Due to the strong selectivity of clothing and jewelry, the clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textile / gold, silver and jewelry social zero fell more sharply than the overall social zero, with a year-on-year decline of – 22.8% / – 26.7% in April alone (- 6.0% / + 0.2% year-on-year from January to April). The epidemic control restricted logistics and transportation. From January to April, the online retail sales of physical goods in China increased by 5.2%, including food and use goods increased by 12.9% and 6.3% respectively, and clothing decreased by 1.7%. At the same time, according to the disclosure of Shanghai Municipal Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in April alone decreased by 48.3% year-on-year (14.2% year-on-year from January to April), and the retail sales of clothing goods decreased by 38.4% year-on-year (15.4% year-on-year from January to April). According to our tracking, as of mid May, with this round of epidemic being gradually controlled and the pace of resumption of work and production in Shanghai advancing steadily, we judge that the social terminal consumption is expected to recover, the clothing and jewelry categories are flexible, and the recovery speed may be better than that of the whole society.
Manufacturers: manufacturers with enhanced fundamental certainty are recommended in the short term. 1) The epidemic situation in dongzhuoya is becoming more and more stable, and local policies are liberalized. We judge that the overseas production capacity of manufacturers is stable. 2) Since March, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (direct exchange rate) has fluctuated upward, and export-oriented manufacturing companies will benefit. 3) At the same time, the heat of subdivided outdoor tracks continues, which is expected to drive the rapid growth of upstream outdoor manufacturing companies. To sum up, [ Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Jiazhou international] are recommended, corresponding to 27 / 26 / 28 times of PE in 2022.
Brands: brands fluctuate under the influence of the epidemic. If the epidemic recovers, the terminal growth is flexible, and they are optimistic about sports shoes and clothing tracks in the medium and long term. Recently, Shanghai and other places have gradually promoted the resumption of business and market, and shopping malls and department stores are expected to gradually and orderly resume business. We believe that if the pet stream gradually returns to normal, clothing brands are expected to usher in a certain degree of recovery. Among them, we are optimistic about the growth of sports track + the medium and long-term investment opportunities that China’s leading market share is expected to increase. Core recommendations [Li Ning, Anta sports, Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Tebu international], corresponding to 28 / 24 / 18 / 20 times of PE in 22 years respectively.
Gold jewelry: Festival demand + investment hedging demand increased, driving the sales of Huangli jewelry. Gufali and other products are sought after by the market, and the leading channel continues to sink. We suggest paying attention to [Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) ], corresponding to 19 / 12 times of PE in 2022.
