Core view: the main line of "steady growth" remains unchanged, and infrastructure + real estate will converge with building materials
(1) in May, the lower limit of LPR and the lower limit of commercial loan interest rate of the first house were all favorable to the real estate + real estate chain. The expectation of policy dividend is gradually transferred from the perspective of easing and cashing in the demand side to the relief of real estate enterprises, and transmitted to the real estate chain. The main reason is that the fundamentals of the real estate chain are damaged and flexible, which can verify the effect of policy implementation. We believe that we can continue to observe the sales data everywhere, especially the performance of key cities after the epidemic, such as Nanjing and Zhengzhou. The signal significance is more prominent. On the other hand, we are waiting for the supply side rescue policy, especially financing. The external pressure of the real estate chain slowed down, and the revenue / delivery expectation Q2 improved. More cities have joined the "policy based on the city", and the construction end + growth target are the first to benefit: ① the consumption of building materials and cement focuses on the marginal change of performance, the superposition and release of post epidemic demand, and the improvement of fundamentals is expected to accelerate; ② Cost side pressure has been fully recognized, and price increases have been hedged in waterproof, coating, cement and other industries; ③ In 2021, the growth rate of real estate sales, commencement and construction is high before and low after, and the Q1 base is high. The dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest to pay attention to: ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space. Double tap combination is a key recommendation, with the core leading [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 [China Liansu] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ].
(2) we continue to suggest giving priority to the construction end. In terms of fundamentals, we believe that the infrastructure chain will give priority to the embodiment, and cement + waterproof + water reducing agent + pipeline is our key recommended sub direction. At the same time, it is suggested that the transition from the expected stage to the fundamental realization stage focuses on landing and performance. ① Cement is used at the starting end of the real estate chain / infrastructure chain. It is expected that the fundamentals will show an inflection point after the epidemic, and the price in East China is expected to stabilize. The key recommendations are [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] (water reducing agent) [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], and [ Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) ] (the reorganization plan is preliminarily determined). ② In the construction sector, it is suggested to pay attention to performance fulfillment, which can be cut from a regional perspective, focusing on the target [ Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) ] [ Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) ] [ Zhejiang Communications Technology Co.Ltd(002061) ] [ Xinjiang Beixin Road & Bridge Group Co.Ltd(002307) ]. ③ Waterproof belongs to the category of strong start-up end, and the accelerated improvement of the industry pattern is ignored, suggesting that the leading income is expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to focus on [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ]. ④ Pipeline recommendation [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [China Liansu], focusing on [ Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ], (metal team coverage) [ Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) ] [ Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) ].
(3) the poor expectation of glass fiber is accumulating strength, and attention is paid to the reshaping of the relationship between supply and demand. Recently, there have been two changes in glass fiber: ① the price of electronic yarn has bottomed out and rebounded, which is expected to be related to the pressure on industry profits and the shutdown / cold repair of some production lines; ② the roving price continues to fall by 100200 yuan month on month this week, which is expected to be related to the production of Jinniu in early may (ignition at the end of March), and the rhythm is in line with expectations. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the inventory has increased month on month. We focus on three aspects: first, the performance of glass fiber is leading the building materials sector, and the volume and price of production capacity increase + benefit from overseas; Second, the downstream "troika" boom intertwined upward; Third, rising costs restrain supply, including energy & material costs and dual carbon approval costs. It is recommended to focus on [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ] [ Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) ].
(4) there are signs of improvement in tariffs and exchange rates in the near future. Biden said that it is possible to cancel some of the tariffs imposed on Chinese products during Trump's period, that is, in 2018 and 2019, the United States will impose a total of 25% tariffs on about US $200 billion of Chinese goods, including glass fiber and artificial lawn in building materials.
(5) the price of photovoltaic glass has been raised for three consecutive months. The mainstream order of 3.2mm original film is 21 yuan / flat, an increase of 5% over the week before the festival.
Key changes in the industry this week (05160520): ① LPR over 5 years was reduced by 15bp to 4.45%. ② Data from the Bureau of Statistics: in April, the newly started area of houses was - 44.2% year-on-year, the sales area was - 39%, and the completed area was - 14.2%; The cement output in a single month was - 19.5% year-on-year, and the glass output was - 0.8% year-on-year. ③ With regard to the personnel change of conch group, Yang Jun plans to take over the post of chairman and once served as Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) chairman. ④ SASAC: the three-year decisive battle of state-owned enterprise reform is over, deepening the reform of state-controlled listed companies and speeding up. ⑤ Shandong, Guizhou and other 10 provinces have successively issued cement kiln shutdown plans. ⑥ The price of roving fell by 100200 yuan / ton within the week. ⑦ European new energy planning: it is planned to double the photovoltaic power generation capacity in 2025, and the total installed capacity of sea breeze in the four European countries will be increased from the current 16GW to 65gw in 2030. ⑧ Marco Polo, the leader of ceramic tiles, disclosed the prospectus for the first time, with a revenue of 9.365 billion in 2021.
Risk warning: the landing of infrastructure projects is not as expected; The relaxation of real estate policy is less than expected; There is uncertainty at the end of the epidemic.
