618 what’s the rhythm of the activity? The platforms rush to warm up and continue the multi period promotion cycle. (1) Tmall platform: the activity rhythm of the platform in 2022 basically continues the rhythm of 2021, which is divided into pre-sale period → “tmall 6.1 good start” → “tmall category Day Carnival” → “tmall 618 Carnival day”; (2) JD platform: continue to implement the rhythm of activities in five stages, including pre-sale period → good start → scene period → climax period → renewal period, of which pre-sale is three days earlier than tmall; (3) Tiktok platform: industry rush period → official period → sprint period → outbreak period, continuing the rhythm of activities in 2021.
What is the intensity of 618 activities? Continue to increase the size and upgrade the discount. (1) Tmall platform: from 199 minus 20, 1000 minus 50 to 300 minus 50, the activity intensity is upgraded; Announce 25 measures to help businesses, covering five aspects: financial subsidies, logistics dredging, flow subsidies, special measures for the epidemic and technological upgrading, and provide businesses with 100 billion yuan of advance collection services; Gather cost-effective official live broadcasts and “10 billion subsidies” to focus on supporting businesses in areas affected by the epidemic; Provide “commodity price power” to monitor the price end, upgrade the “wanxiangtai” and improve the business efficiency. (2) JD platform: the preferential intensity will be increased from 30 for 200 and 60 for 1000 to 50 for 299; In terms of pre-sale, it launched “buy back lock customer”; “No. 1 Beijing Post” is upgraded to “cross store full reduction”. Consumers do not need to receive vouchers separately. When settling in the shopping cart interface, they can directly participate in full reduction and improve the shopping experience. (3) Tiktok platform: launched the live broadcast room of goodies, peak task competition, receiving red envelopes every day, cross store full reduction and other ways to reduce the customer acquisition and operating costs of businesses and attract consumers; Three kinds of benefits, i.e. red envelope grabbing in the live broadcasting room, red envelope signing in and receiving, and red envelope rain in Tiktok mall, were introduced. Through subsidies, consumers’ desire to place orders was stimulated, the proportion of orders placed by consumers was increased, and the speed of placing orders was improved.
How about the promotion of international brands? Tax free + Super price competition. (1) From the perspective of product matrix: the participation of international brands, the number of brand SKUs increased significantly compared with 618 in the year of 21, slightly increased compared with the double 11 in the year of 21, and the willingness to participate increased. (2) Price comparison – Super head vs official flag: the high luxury brands represented by lamer and Helena and the high-end brands represented by Lancome and Estee Lauder are basically the same as the official flagship store in the super head live broadcasting room, and the price discount of gifts is considered to be 7-10% of the official flag; The price and gifts of overseas popular brands and efficacy skin care products have obvious advantages. The price of the live broadcasting room is 6-80% off that of the official flag. (3) Price comparison – Super head vs China free: the daily sales of China free are mainly formal clothes, diversified online sales and strong discounts, and the prices of some products are lower than those of super head.
How about the promotion of domestic brands? The richness of products is improved, and the price changes are different. (1) From the perspective of product matrix: the richness of domestic products has been significantly improved compared with the “double 11” in the 21st year. For example, Winona has added light spot essence, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) double anti facial mask and Yuanli essence, and Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) has logged into the super head live broadcast room for the first time during the promotion period, and the richness of the product matrix has been improved. (2) From the perspective of product price: ① Winona: the prices of Shumin moisturizing special care cream, freeze-dried facial mask and sunscreen were higher than those of the “double 11” and were the same as those of the “618” in the year of 21; ② Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) 618: the price of the product is basically the same as that of the “double 11” in the 21st year, and the number of gifts is increased. For example, the ruby essence and the “morning C night a” set are added with water emulsion samples; ③ Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) : the prices of many products of kwadi and mibel are exactly the same as those of the double 11 in the 21st year, and the number of gifts of kwadi and mibel powder water has decreased.
Investment suggestion: 618 greatly promotes the maintenance of high discounts. Considering the gradual easing of the epidemic and the recovery of logistics in Shanghai, we are optimistic about the performance of domestic products under the trend of effective skin care. We mainly recommend Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) .
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is declining; Increased competition; Epidemic disturbance; The launch of new cosmetics brands is less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials and products.
