Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by 2.02% and 2.64% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by 0.77%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (89 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 13.55% and – 22.90% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 8.09%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by 0.77%, ranking 28th among the 30 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 28 of the 30 CITIC primary industries rose. The top three industries were coal, power equipment, new energy and non-ferrous metals, with an increase of 7.38%, 7.30% and 7.03% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 8.09%, ranking 8th among 30 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, two of the 30 CITIC primary industries have risen. The top three industries are coal, construction and real estate, with an increase of 23.44%, 0.85% and – 1.83% respectively.
In the past week, among the sub industries of the retail sector, the top three sub industries were trade, 3C chain of household appliances and gold jewelry, with an increase of 2.83%, 1.62% and 1.34% respectively. Since 2022, the top three sub industries in the retail sector are supermarkets and convenience stores, department stores and gold jewelry, with increases of – 3.45%, – 5.11% and – 9.00% respectively.
In the past week, 52 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) rose, 2 were flat and 39 fell. In the past week, the top three companies were China National Complete Plant Import And Export Co.Ltd(000151) , Fujian Ideal Jewellery Industrial Co.Ltd(002740) and ST friendly, with an increase of 32.26%, 17.14% and 16.76% respectively. Since 2022, 46 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) have increased and 47 have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) , Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) and Fujian Sanmu Group Co.Ltd(000632) , with an increase of 118.53%, 73.13% and 59.56% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
The recent recurrence of the epidemic may suppress consumer demand to a certain extent, especially in Beijing or Tianjin, which may have a certain adverse impact on the social consumption data in May. However, we believe that under the effective measures of all provinces in the country, it is the general trend to control the epidemic. It is expected that the epidemic will be gradually controlled in the third or fourth quarter of 2022, and consumption will recover or even rebound. In the short term, we suggest paying attention to the online sales of 618 promotion activities. Although there is a certain high base of sales during the 618 promotion in 2021, we still look forward to the rebound of e-commerce consumption in Shanghai and other places. The recent platform economic stimulus policy is also conducive to the performance improvement and competitive strength enhancement of e-commerce companies. Suggestions for next week: Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) .
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
