Key investment points:
Photovoltaic equipment: the iterative promotion of efficient power generation technology and the continuous expansion of leading battery capacity. The demand of photovoltaic power generation for the reduction of kWh cost promotes its continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase. Technical iteration is one of the most effective means of cost reduction and efficiency increase. The logic of changing equipment + increasing investment brought by technology iteration can not only transmit the cost pressure of equipment manufacturers, but also expand the future market. At the initial stage of technology iteration, the equipment supplier’s orders and performance growth are expected to be strong. In the 21-22 years, the process changes of silicon wafers such as large silicon wafers, flaked silicon wafers and rectangular silicon wafers, the iteration of high-efficiency power generation technologies such as hjt, TOPCON and XBC, and the packaging process changes of components such as smbb high-precision serial welding have promoted the endless emergence of technical iterations, and continued to pay attention to the equipment targets benefiting from technical iterations. In 2022, the capacity expansion of battery plants continued to advance. In addition to the increasing capacity of Longji, Tongwei, Jingke, aixu, Risheng and other manufacturers in HPBC, TOPCON, hjt and other technologies, this week, Jingao and Huasheng announced their own production expansion plan. Jingao is expected to invest 10.29 billion yuan in the reconstruction and expansion project of 10GW high-efficiency battery and 5GW components in Qujing and 11gw high-power components in Hefei. Huasheng held talks with Dali state government and Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) officially signed the agreement on the investment and construction of 5GW high-efficiency h JT battery and components in Dali. The logic of photovoltaic technology iteration and capacity expansion is continuously verified.
Oil service equipment: under high oil prices, oil companies will continue to release positive capital expenditure in the next three years. The boom recovery structure of the industry in this cycle has been differentiated. Oil and gas projects with low cost, short return cycle, low-carbon and environmental protection, such as onshore in the Middle East, deepwater in Brazil and shale oil and gas in North America, will recover faster. By the end of the 21st century, the industry had only shown relatively restrained repair. At this stage, the global oil service market is gradually warming up. Deep water projects such as Brazil’s Yanxia oilfield are accelerating development; Shale activity in North America continues to improve, and the utilization rate of Halliburton’s actual fracturing equipment has exceeded 90%. We expect that the prosperity of the industry will continue to improve rapidly in the second half of the year. Historically, the oil and gas industry has been the leading supply chain of European and American enterprises for a long time because of its high requirements for safety and high barriers to technology, qualification and capital. In recent years, especially in the process of large-scale shale oil and gas development and deep-sea development in China, Chinese excellent enterprises have broken overseas monopoly in all links. The industry is facing great ESG pressure and has an urgent demand for higher cost performance and shorter delivery time. We judge that China’s excellent oil service enterprises will be more competitive this round and significantly benefit from this round of recovery.
Cutting tools: the import of 22q1 cutting tools fell by more than 10% year-on-year, and the domestic substitution trend continued. According to the import and export data from January to March released by the machine tool industry association, the export volume of 22q1 cutting tools was US $950 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, and the import volume was US $380 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. In 2021, China’s import of cutting tools reached 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%. On the one hand, the decline in the import volume of cutting tools was affected by the downward trend of China’s manufacturing industry, on the other hand, it was the result of the continuous promotion of the domestic substitution process. From the income of China’s leading manufacturers, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co.Ltd(000657) / Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) / Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) / Est Tools Co.Ltd(300488) 22q1 increased by 13%, 16%, 22% and 21% respectively, which achieved good performance.
Industry and company trends this week: 1) photovoltaic equipment: Huasheng announced the production expansion plan of hjt, and dill won the large order of Longji system; 2) Semiconductor equipment: 21 sets of process equipment for the bid opening of China’s mainstream wafer factories this week; 3) Lithium battery equipment: Haichen new energy expanded the production of 50gwh energy storage cells, with a total investment of 13 billion; 4) Oil service: OPEC lowered its expectation of oil demand growth in 2022 by 320000 barrels / day; 5) Laser and general automation: 19 laser and optical enterprises were selected into the list of the third batch of national specialized and new “little giant” enterprises recommended by the Ministry of industry and information technology in the first year; 6) Sewing equipment: poor logistics, declining orders and rising costs are the main impact of the current epidemic on the industry.
The core target of this week’s portfolio of the core of the week’s portfolio: it’s recommended to focus on the growth track with a high boom, and the periodic sector investment opportunities with high elasticity and upward infleinfleinfleturning points, and the periodic sector with high resilience and upward infleturning points, and the periodic sector with high resilience, turning points and upward turning points. It’s recommended to focus on the growth track with a high boom, and the periodic sector with high resilience, and cyclical sector with high resilience, and periodic sector with high resilience, turning points upward, turning points, turning points, and turning points. Oil service sector recommends [ Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) 7777 [ Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(300747) ], recommended for general automation [ Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ], it is suggested to pay attention to [ China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) ].
Risk tips: 1. The production expansion progress of lithium battery manufacturers is less than expected; 2. The recovery of the shipbuilding industry is less than expected; 3. The business growth of the recommended company is less than expected.
