Land purchase volume shrinks and prices rise, continuing the “high-energy focus”; Affected by the repeated epidemic situation and the downward pressure of macro-economy, the sales of commercial housing continued to be cold in April; The second-hand housing price index in first tier cities has been growing month on month for five consecutive months
In April, the land purchase area was 4.27 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 57.3% and a month on month increase of – 14.7%; The land transaction price was 28.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 28.3% and a month on month increase of – 6.8%; The unit price of land purchase was 6619 yuan / square meter, with a year-on-year increase of + 67.9% and a month on month increase of + 9.4%. From January to April, the land purchase area was 17.66 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 46.5%; The land transaction price was 95.5 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 20.6%; The unit price of land purchase is 5408 yuan / square meter, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 48.4%. The year-on-year data of land purchase unit price continued to rise, and there were signs of accelerating the upward trend (the unit price of land purchase fee in March and April increased by 68.1% and 67.9% year-on-year respectively). Land acquisition by developers continued to gather in high-energy cities.
In April, affected by the repeated epidemic situation and the downward pressure of macro-economy, the sales of commercial housing continued to be cold in April. The sales area of commercial housing was 87 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 39.0% in a single month; The sales volume of commercial housing was 0.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 46.6% in a single month; The average sales price of commercial housing was 9327 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of – 12.4% in a single month.
In April, the price index of newly-built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities was – 0.1% year-on-year, of which the first / second / third tier was + 3.9%, + 1.0% and – 1.5% respectively; The month on month ratio was – 0.3%, of which the first / second / third line was + 0.2%, – 0.1% and – 0.6% respectively. In April, the price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities was – 1.6% year-on-year, of which the first / second / third tier was + 2.4%, – 1.0% and – 2.5% respectively; The month on month ratio was – 0.3%, of which the first / second / third line was + 0.4%, – 0.3% and – 0.3% respectively. The price index of first-line newly-built commercial housing has increased for four consecutive months since January 2022, and the price index of first-line second-hand housing has increased for five consecutive months since December 2021.
From January to April, the accumulated real estate investment turned negative year-on-year, and the depth of new construction fell in a single month in April; The funds available for development are still weak, and the funds from the banking system have increased by 3 PCT compared with the end of 2021
In April, the investment in real estate development was 1.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 10.1% in a single month; The new construction area was 99 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 44.2% in a single month; The completed area was 31.01 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 14.2% in a single month. From January to April, the investment in real estate development was 3.92 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 2.7%; The newly started area was 397 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 26.3%; The construction area is 8.186 billion square meters, which is flat in total; The completed area was 200 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 11.9%.
From January to April, the real estate development funds totaled 4.85 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 23.6%; Among them, China’s loans, self raised funds, advance payment of deposits and personal mortgages were – 24.4%, – 5.2%, – 37.0% and – 25.2% respectively year-on-year; Among them, the sum of Chinese loans and personal mortgages from the banking system increased to 31%, three PCT higher than 28% at the end of 2021.
Investment suggestions: 1) since the beginning of 2022, many parties have released the capital area pole signal, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 20bp, affordable housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, new measures for pre-sale regulatory funds have been adopted to rectify structural deviations, and major banks have provided M & A financing support“ α The “risk” repair enters the implementation stage. 2) At the same time, the trend of financial Prudential Management and “deleveraging” will continue to deepen, and some early over radical real estate enterprises“ α “Risk” may still be exposed, but the real estate market“ β The overall trend of “coefficient” health and stability will not change. 3) On February 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed to “meet the reasonable demand for improved house purchase”. On March 5, the report of the two sessions of the National People’s Congress “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing demand of house buyers”. On April 29, the high-level meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee set the tone of “support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions”, and the policy path was clearer and clearer; On May 15, the CBRC of the central bank adjusted the differentiated housing mortgage policy, the provincial market independently determined the lower limit of mortgage points, improved its independence, and promoted the demand for house purchase to enter the substantive implementation stage; Subsequently, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the supply and demand of the real estate industry can be expected to recover. 4) Recently, the market has paid more attention to the real estate sector, and high-quality leading real estate enterprises have performed well. It is suggested to pay attention to China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, China Overseas Hongyang group, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Yuexiu real estate.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring and Sino US trade friction may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China falling short of expectations, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases.
