Market review: this week, the pharmaceutical and biological index fell 2.01%, 4.79 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, and the rise and fall of the industry ranked 32nd. Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 21.58%, 3.33 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, and the industry ranks 26th in terms of rise and fall. This week, the valuation level (pe-ttm) of the pharmaceutical industry was 24 times, with a premium rate of 75.2% (- 7.38pp) relative to all a shares, 32.4% (- 5.99pp) relative to all A-Shares excluding banks, and 114.1% (- 8.08pp) relative to CSI 300. In terms of pharmaceutical sub industry, the two sub industry sectors rose this week, and blood products were the sub industry with the largest increase, up about 1.6%. Offline pharmacies ranked second with the largest increase, about 1.3%. The sub industry with the smallest decline since the beginning of the year is pharmaceutical circulation, down about 6.1%.
New progress has been made in the research and development of covid-19 oral drugs, which is optimistic about the main line of epidemic recovery Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) covid-19 oral drug vv116 subjects performed well in the first clinical study. The research and development of covid-19 oral drugs such as Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) and Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) have made new progress, and the hope of ending covid-19 pandemic has further increased. From May 22, the transportation lines in Shanghai will be gradually restored, and the resumption of work and production will be promoted in three stages. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic in Shanghai, we will focus on the main line of demand recovery after the epidemic in the future. 1) Traditional Chinese medicine, focusing on Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , etc. 2) With independent consumption attribute, focus on Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , etc. 3) Resumption of production and work after the epidemic, focusing on Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) , Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) , Maider Medical Industry Equipment Co.Ltd(688310) , etc.
According to our annual strategy for 2022, in the era of normalization of medical insurance pressure and post epidemic, we will focus on looking for varieties of “through medical insurance” and “epidemic desensitization”. Medical insurance pressure will become the norm in the future. On the one hand, we believe that leading pharmaceutical enterprises such as Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) etc. are expected to cross the “medical insurance border” through “continuous innovation + internationalization”; On the other hand, medical insurance immunization is still a better choice. For the downstream TOC end, focus on the varieties that do not account for medical insurance, such as self funded biological drugs, traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, medical beauty upstream products, etc; The tob end at the upstream of the industrial chain is relatively immune to policies, such as the CXO section of the Chuang Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. The equipment section includes pharmaceutical machinery equipment, pharmacy automation equipment, consumables production equipment, etc., and the field of life science reagents and consumables. In the post epidemic era, we think we should focus on the field of “desensitization” of the epidemic, 1) vaccine varieties or vaccine oversold varieties that are not disturbed by covid-19; 2) When peg is less than 1, the undervalued value or low expected variety with upward long-term fundamental trend; 3) The varieties of medical services that have been damaged by the previous epidemic and the recovery of demand in the future.
The steady combination of this week’week’s steady combination: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ), Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) ( Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) ), Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) (1877).
The elastic combination of this week will be the elastic combination of the elastic combination of the week of the week of the week of the week: Kyland Technology Co.Ltd(300353) 5 ( Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) ), Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ( Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ), Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) ( Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) ).
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure.
