Key investment points
Industry perspective
From January to April this year, the electric vehicle sector was impacted by many factors such as policy, epidemic situation, raw materials, vehicle price increase and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The new energy vehicle and lithium battery sector made a sharp correction. With the implementation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) first quarterly report and marginal improvement of epidemic situation, the electric vehicle sector has been repaired since early May. At present, there are relatively abundant orders for electric vehicles, the continuous evolution of technological innovations such as CTB, CTC, Kirin battery and 4680, the launch of high-quality products such as seals, and frequent highlights. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the bottleneck at the supply side is expected to open, the terminal data is expected to continue to be repaired upward, and the sector is still in a good period of configuration.
1) the electric vehicle sector has ushered in repair and is still in a good period of medium and long-term configuration. Resumption of the new energy vehicle sector, from January to April, due to the jump in the price of lithium carbonate, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increase in the terminal price of automobile enterprises, the outbreak of the epidemic in many places in China, the higher interest rate in the United States than expected, the short-term sales volume was lower than expected, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the first quarterly report was lower than expected, and other multiple negative expectations followed, resulting in a significant correction due to the continuous negative impact. In May, with the landing of the first quarterly report of Ningde, the epidemic situation improved, the resumption of work and production was promoted one after another, and the sector was repaired to a certain extent. We judge that the current valuation of each segment is still at the historical bottom range. With the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, the supply side bottleneck is opened, the terminal data may continue to be repaired, the fundamentals will continue to improve, the long-term trend of the industrial chain is good, and it is still in the good period of long-term allocation.
2) Byd Company Limited(002594) ctb battery products lead the industry’s technological innovation Byd Company Limited(002594) released CTB technology, with good market feedback. CTB technology has significantly optimized the performance and safety of the whole vehicle, increased the volume utilization rate of the battery system, doubled the torsional stiffness of the whole vehicle, and increased the structural safety of front impact and side impact by 50% and 45% respectively. The closely arranged blade batteries, upper cover sector and bottom sector form a honeycomb “sandwich” structure, which can withstand the rolling of 50 tons of heavy trucks and achieve a breakthrough in the structural strength of the battery system. In addition, Byd Company Limited(002594) released the heavyweight model seal. The seal is equipped with CTB technology and adopts blade battery. The seal is an e-platform 3.0 model equipped with CTB technology, which has achieved new breakthroughs in safety, handling, efficiency and aesthetics. It is popular in pre-sale and has good market feedback. On the whole, with the continuous promotion of Byd Company Limited(002594) CTB technology, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Kirin battery and Tesla led 4680 battery, and the continuous optimization of the supply side, the technological innovation of the industrial chain is expected to accelerate the global trend of electrification, showing a trend of letting a hundred flowers bloom and booming supply and demand.
3) the low point of sales volume has passed, and it is expected to improve in May. In April, affected by the epidemic, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China was 312000 / yoy + 44% / qoq-33%, and the sales volume was 299000 / yoy + 45% / qoq-38%. The supply and demand were impacted month on month, but the penetration rate of electric vehicles increased to 25% month on month, about 3PCT month on month, without changing the general trend of electrification. We believe that the epidemic situation has improved marginally, the resumption of work and production continues to advance, the worst situation has passed, and the production and sales are expected to continue to repair upward in May. On the whole, we maintain the global sales forecast of 9.5 ~ 10 million in 2022, the demand of the industrial chain will continue to increase, the fundamentals are solid, and the performance cashability of the leading enterprises is still strong and the value is prominent.
4) it is suggested to focus on the layout opportunities of lithium batteries with good expected margin. In terms of product price, lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, cathode and other subdivided fields show a high stabilization or downward trend. The cost of lithium battery may decline marginally, superimposed with the price rise of new energy vehicle terminals, which is conducive to alleviating or eliminating the negative expectations of the market that the price or cost transmission is not smooth. Based on this, lithium power battery enterprises, which were previously suppressed by the rise of raw material costs and their performance and valuation, will usher in better marginal expectations.
5) industrial chain differentiation: the best is the best: profit distribution will be the key point of the industrial chain game in 2022, which is reflected in the game in the secondary market. Unit profit, market share and technological marginal change are the key factors to evaluate enterprises α The core element of growth attribute. In general, we continue to be optimistic about power batteries, diaphragms, high nickel ternary, negative electrode integration and some of them α High quality leading assets.
Subject recommendation
Under the general trend of global “double carbon” strong driving and supply resonance driving the continuous growth of demand, the outlook of the industrial chain will continue to rise. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities in the direction of energy storage and fuel cell for industrial extension.
Suggested layout main line: 1) core assets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , etc. 2) Elastic varieties: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) etc. 3) Other suggestions are to focus on the leading points of the various sub industry segments: the 30 Huangshan Novel Co.Ltd(002014) \ , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc. 4) Key recommendations in the field of energy storage: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) . Suggestions for attention in the field of fuel cells: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) -u, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , etc. Highlights of this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) .
Market resumption
1) industry level: this week, fuel cell index, new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, charging pile index and energy storage index increased by 6%, 6%, 7%, 6% and 10% respectively. 2) Company level: referring to the lithium battery index, the top five gainers this week were Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) (29%), Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (20%), Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) (19%), Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) (16%), Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) (15%). Only Guoguang Electric Company Limited(002045) (1 share fell (- 4%).
Industry dynamics
1) industrial chain price: lithium carbonate is quoted at 462000 yuan / ton and lithium hydroxide at 468000 yuan / ton this week, both of which are the same as last week; Nickel was quoted at 26100 US dollars / ton, down 4.7%; cobalt was quoted at 503000 yuan / ton, down 5.8%; In terms of cathode materials, NCM 111 / 523 / 622 yuan precursor was quoted at 14.9/14.6153000 yuan / ton on Wednesday, down 1.3% / 0.7% / 0.7% respectively, and ncm622 yuan precursor was quoted at 385000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week; In terms of electrolyte, the quotation of lithium fluorophosphate on Saturday was 305000 yuan / ton, down 7.6%, and the quotation of electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) was 88000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; Diaphragm, 9 μ Wet base film / 14 μ The price of dry base membrane is 1.48/0.95 yuan / m2 respectively, which remains stable; In terms of negative electrode materials, the prices of middle-end and high-end natural graphite were RMB 51000 / 61000 / ton respectively, the same as last week. 2) Key industry trends: Hubei and Zhejiang provinces have released the “14th five year plan” energy storage plan. By 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will be 2gw and 1GW respectively. 11 provinces and cities in China have issued clear energy storage plans, and the total planned installed capacity will reach 36.2gw in 2025.
Company dynamics
1) Byd Company Limited(002594) released new models of seals and started pre-sale at the same time. The pre-sale is explosive. As of 22:00 on May 20, the pre-sale order volume of seals has reached 22600. 2) Xiongtao Co., Ltd. released the company’s first metal sector stack, with a volume power density of 5.4kw/l.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; The performance of the recommended company is less than expected; Systemic risk.
